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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (67222)	7/12/1999 10:33:00 AM
From: Patric Von Swarengen	Respond to of 164684

What's going on? Everyone on Bloomberg and cnn said that everyone was excited about earnings. But there wasn't even a gap up. I even took up a minor short position. There's been enough bad-mouthing on the yahoo message boards. Any thoughts on how long this will last?

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (67222)	7/12/1999 11:03:00 AM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

The Internet industry stocks are much like the early PC marketplace. There was a similar evangelistic enthusiasm among the early users and companies. When IBM burst on the scene to try to capture the emerging market, many analysts predicted the doom of their competitors - that big blue would lock up the entire market. Apple positioned themselves as the anti-establishment foil to IBM's starched white shirts. But neither was IBM destined to dominate the vibrant industry nor was Apple able to perpetuate a proprietary architecture with great success. The PC space has evolved into a business in which no single company controls more than a few percent of the overall sales. Long term success in holding market position is gauged in months rather than years as players are continuing to re-invent the game or trade growth for profits. The Internet space has even fewer barriers to entry than computers. Although there is a good deal of "technology" that goes behind building a good web site, it is relatively easy to acquire and duplicate them. What's more, the points of communication are greatly expanded, less subject to control. There will be "winners" for sure but the idea that anything named .com that gives money away for page hits is a formula for success is seriously flawed. The recent reports of declining effectiveness of web ads and the inability for give-aways to create a longer term pay-back is telling. Why does anyone think that a strategy of giving away $5 or $10 free certificates or free merchandise or stuff at or bellow cost is sustainable? Just when these companies think that they have carved out enough market share that they can scale back the customer buy-ins, another group of competitors will take up the strategy to entice their customers away with a new round of freebies and ad campaigns. ------------ The market is continuing to see rotation and stock picking - large gains in the Internet leaders will be difficult through Sept or Oct, IMO. Striking it rich in Bizarro Amazon World aint what it used to be.