To: Ken Benes who wrote (37043 ) 7/12/1999 3:26:00 PM From: long-gone Respond to of 116764
If enough people look for a lack of "significant downside" could there be a chance of a great upside?: Colorado firms keep hopes bright By Steve Raabe Denver Post Business Writer July 12 - Oh, London is a fine town, A very famous city, Where all the streetsare paved with gold, And all the maidens pretty. - English playwright George Colman, 1808 That gilded pavement in London no longer carries quite the same glitter. Following the Bank of England's sale last week of 25 metric tons of gold, prices fell to a 20-year low - $256 an ounce, rising slightly to close at $257.70 Friday. Gold once traded as high as $834 an ounce in 1980. How low can it go? By many accounts, not much lower. Adjusted for inflation, gold is cheaper now than its value of $35 an ounce in 1947. Investors stashing cash under a mattress would have fared far better than holding gold over the past 20 years. With that kind of performance, forecasting better days for gold is not a great leap. Then again, gold prices have defied laws of supply and demand for so long that gold confounds rational economic analysis. But some analysts say that a combination of widely disparate factors - the Y2K scare, an over valued stock market, economic instability in Asia and the shutdown of numerous gold mines - may point to a rebound for gold. "At some point, the price has to catapult, and go up by multiples," said Michael Kosares, president of Centennial Precious Metals in Denver. "The question is, when?" As the site of the great gold rush of 1859, Colorado has a significant interest in the answer to that question. Here's why: - Even though no one is mining gold in substantial quantities in the state, several gold-mining companies are based here, including Newmont Mining, the world's second-largest gold producer. - Kosares' Centennial Precious Metals is one of the nation's largest brokers of gold coins, and his book "The ABCs of Gold Investing" and his company Web site are widely followed by gold investors. - The gold fund at Denver-based Invesco mutual funds has performed better than many of its peers - albeit faint praise in the lackluster gold-fund sector. Officials at each of the Colorado entities share a common mindset: a hope and expectation of higher gold prices, tempered by the realization that gold has disappointed before and will probably disappoint again. "I'm not going to sit here and tell you I'm bullish on gold," said John Segner, vice president and portfolio manager of the Invesco gold fund. "But I'm also not sure what the downside could be," he said, referring to supply and demand fundamentals that point to a rebound for gold. "I just don't think you can find significant downside." (cont)denverpost.com