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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DanZ who wrote (1985)	7/12/1999 1:00:00 PM
From: Mad2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10293

Dan, respectfully as you talk about the prospects for GUMM in the nicotine market your forgetting that Gunn who doesn't have the marketing and distribution strength nor a brand name would be going after an extablished product with a me too angle for something that isn't a price/impulse buy. How much $$$$ are required to up production capacity and promote. Of course they're selling on Price and to who?? Maybe someoneelse who will creaqte a brand. How much shelve space do retailers want to devote to smoking cesation? Retailers don't just had out shelve space to whoever walks in the door, they are interested in using the shelve space profitably. Once it's reduced to a game plan, with costs loaded in and taking into consideration pleasing everyone in the value chain (or sucessfully forcing them to go along) involves $$$$$. GUMM is a private lable manufacturer, not a niche marketer. The last president got tossed out on his ear trying to be a niche marketer cause it failed. Private lable manufacturing is fine if you have unused capacity.......It starts to stink when you have to make significant investiment because it's difficult to have control over your future. Besides the real story on gumm is revenue, profit and financing. This ZICAM thing is intreguing because investors (and brokers love to sell it) are willing to bet on the come and of course the only thing out on ZICAM now IS speculation (dreams and what if's). Of course the ZICAM thing will probably turn out to be like all other business' and have its challenges, problems, delays, competition and needs. Apart from this recent financing thing ZICAM will be a bit volitle building on the expectation of great things to come. Gunn Allen will be distributing whatever new releases exist citing new orders of ZICAM bla bla bla alog with their price target of $25/share. Perhaps Hensley and Davidson will get on Good Morning America to report their latest findings, etc...... Apart from all the possibilities we will still come back to revenue, profit and how they finance. Pity the poor sap that buys GUMM no or at some later point thinking he's made a long term investiment. What are the chances of GUMM being a 50+mil company spitting out 10% aftertax in 2 years without dilutive financing? Are they 100%, 50%, 10% or less that 5%. Just to get there they would suck cash and bankers aren't going to feed this animal without more equity. Dan this is a story today and for the next couple of months, but it is and very likely will continue to be a financial failure. Everyone needs to forget about the story and focus on how this thing can justify it's current price and where the cash will come from. Where's the numbers that give some reasonable assurance that its possible a positive track record can be developed if things go favorably? Has management has had the forsight to anticipate their capital needs and costs with some pro forma numbers? If not why? Are they just hoping? Unfortunatly many people every day buy small crap stock based on hope and would be much better served by going the mutual fund route. Mad2