To: DanZ who wrote (1995 ) 7/12/1999 5:25:00 PM From: Mad2 Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10293
Dan, I don't believe ZICAM to be a scam any more than Cold-Ease. Of course it makes for a nice story for someone to get excited about. To me it's a product. Lots of issues. New product, new chanels, new retailers, new customer and NO history. All kind's of things happening for the first time. How much inventory, at retailer, at jobber, on shelve? What kinda of demand pattern? How much to fill pipeline, how much to replenish? These aren't only new to Gel-Tech/Gumm Tech they are new to the retail channels. Of course this is a seasonal product so you have a limited opportunity to get it right before demand dries up (and no one wants dead inventory). Dan, I've been involved with numerous launchs of "new things" and I will tell you things never look better than before you do them....then comes the education. If this were P&G, J & J or some well healed consumer products company that knows how to launch new products it would be one thing, however this is a company who's business is currently 10 million/year of mainly private label product to the retail trade, were it's their customer who has the experience dealing with the retailer. GUMM's orignal strategy of branding and doing it themselves failed. ZICAM is another effort at the direct to retailer sales of branded product. Dan, you gotta worry about what they don't know. Anyay I know you guys are dedicated enthusiasts over the ZICAM story and it does have some sex appeal to it. But lets be realistic, the shine does tarnish and reality does set in. At that point what are the fundamentals that will establish the floor of support for the stock price? Back to revenue, profits and financing. Best Regards, Mad2 PS Dan In my opinion GUMM's per share price in 6-9 months will likely be lower than today, with the possibility of being much lower and an even smaller possibility of being higher. The next 3-6 months is the tough call, but carefull attention to what unfolds will be key. This is a stock you need to be prepared to loose it all in a short time. Big difference between company with a good story and a track record of execution and one that has a good story with a record of dissapointment. Also big difference between a company with strong financing and one that is a weakling in that regard which was Wexler's point initially. As you know I'm quite familiar with GUMM and looking at the company for months or 3 min. doesn't change its financial strength.