To: unclewest who wrote (24566 ) 7/12/1999 2:44:00 PM From: Dave B Respond to of 93625
unclewest, Some things never change, and one of them is that Skeeter doesn't post his sources (from the Dell thread 2/27/99):Message 8073147 To: Skeeter Bug (105676 ) From: Chuzzlewit Saturday, Feb 27 1999 11:05PM ET Reply #105677 of 136298 Skeeter, don't you understand that what we need is data, not intuition or equations. Your equation isn't at fault, it's the input. You assumed that unit growth was based 12% - 15% on marketing data. You next assumed that ASPs fell significantly. And from those assumptions you calculated what you prefer to believe the revenue growth was because Michael Burke said so. Now let's look at alternate assumptions each consistent with existing reports and data. If unit growth was 15%, and revenues increased by 3% then ASPs declined by 10.5%. What's wrong with that scenario? What is wrong is that we still need data, not assumptions or calculations based on assumptions. Every marketing statistic has a confidence interval associated with it. What is the standard error of your calculation? Why would you have more faith in it than mine? After all, both are consistent with what we have been told. The fact is that the only indication I have of computer revenues comes from a report from Merrill Lynch which neither of us have seen. That report shows that revenues either increased 1% (as in the article you cited) or 3%-5% (as in the two articles I saw). But those are at best tertiary accounts. What data did Merrill use, and what was their source, and what was the integrity of the numbers -- those are the real questions, and all of the suppositions in the world will not erase those questions. Your reliance on Michael Burke leads me to believe that you have confidence in his world view. I think he has a monumental ego that chooses to seize on any bit of information supporting his point of view and ignoring anything that is inconsistent, or, as he clearly did with me, try to twist the data to his own purposes. I suggest you try some independent thinking. He has yet to be right on anything concerning the computer industry where data are available. And even now he's not doing the research, but still trying to get others to do it.To: Michael D.Burke (64437 ) From: Skeeter Bug Monday, Jul 12 1999 2:00PM ET Reply #64440 of 64443 mike, you posted an article saying pc revs were up 1-2% while units were up 20%. can you point me to it? tia... Dave