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Non-Tech : Knight/Trimark Group, Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joseph Silent who wrote (2261)	7/12/1999 2:53:00 PM
From: oilbabe	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 10027

Joseph: Yes, there are a lot of weak hands. Lots of stops were in at 55 9/16 today, and they are all gone, like it or not. In a volatile stock like this with some uncertainty overhanging, the MM can have a field day with novice investors. Of course, those selling at 55 might be the wiser players, who knows, but I don't think so. Last quarter the sell off after earnings lasted 2 days, and then a big rally from there, so we'll see.

To: Joseph Silent who wrote (2261)	7/12/1999 4:25:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10027

Joseph, I am not sure there is reliable data regarding behavior of stocks at options expiry. I know there is a very widespread belief out there that the price of a stock tends to settle at the "point of maximum pain" at expiration (there are even sites devoted to calculating this point), but I have seen studies that purport to show that no such firm relationship exists. What is certain, is that trading leading up to an expiry session tends to be very volatile, precisely because of pre-positioning. Whatever the case, I personally don't believe the trading in NITE was/is related to the option expiry this Friday. The troubling pattern of trading has been going on for far too long for that to be the case IMO. You had certain classic red flags, most notably: failure to respond to good news (and there's been a whole bunch, take your pick: good company PR - hires, expansion plans etc., analyst upgrades, positive comments by various market mavens, good appreciation in price by sector stocks and good earnings in OLB, etc. etc. etc.), consistent selling into strength by big blocks, early up late sell-offs (interesting contrast w/ MSFT, which has been under "stealth accumulation", where in MSFT would tank in the morning, and suddenly gain in the last 30 minutes of trading - this has been a pattern for several days, though not as pronounced today), failure to hold gains in strongly positive markets while immediately selling off in a negative market, suspicious trading patterns (this is my own private observation from watching LII, and based on my own experience daytrading stocks: in fact, contrary to what some posters have claimed - that MMs were playing games w/ the LII to drive the price down - I observed a very disturbing phenomenon, in fact it seemed to me, that the selling would kick in exactly when the market ticks were positive as if selling into strength, while when the market tick would turn down the MMs would support the price and organize short sucker mini-rallies and when the retail investors picked up the rally, the selling would kick in again; what the pattern told me, is that the MMs were doing their best to support the stock to extract as high a price as possible and absorb all the selling without breaking the stock). One thing which would indicate a very negative trend, would be if there was no explanation for the slide - here I can't decide. On the one hand there doesn't seem to be anything on the horizon to justify the selling - which is a very bearish sign (if there is an obvious explanation, that can be bullish, because you can jump in on the theory that the "trouble" whatever it may be, is being priced into the stock - but if you can find no reason, you don't know how to price the decline) - on the other hand, perhaps the explanation is the share lock up. Whatever, I am still very bullish long term on the stock, based on FA. I am anxious to jump in at the first moment the TA gives me a clear buy signal. Good luck. Morgan