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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave B who wrote (24585)	7/12/1999 7:28:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 93625

dave, if my homework is to do your homework... yup. i didn't do my homework. but numbers don't tell the whole story on the surface. let's look at growth rates... 1999 2000 GROWTH (IMPLOSION) RATE <$600 10.8% 13.7% 27% $600-$1000 42.7% 43.4% 1.6% $1000-$1500 26.5% 26.9% 1.5% >$1500 20.0% 15.0% (25% IMPLOSION) now, this TOTALLY supports my assertion that most folks are migrating toward the cheap boxes - though i'd define cheap boxes as < $800. you know what? next year's $600 box and scanner and internet service is this year's $700 box. how LOW can you GO... seems to be operative. rmbs has a niche on the high end, for sure. the question is, how big. time will tell. ps - since all these cheap box buyers are trading up to much nicer boxes... why is the high end collapsing vs growing? ;-) as an aside, high end boxes used to be $2500+. as further proof of a loss of pricing power, high end is now $1500...

To: Dave B who wrote (24585)	7/13/1999 1:09:00 AM
From: J_W	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Dave, Here is a better way to look at PC memory usage. Keep in mind that low end boxes will use minimal amounts of DRAM while high end boxes will use much larger amounts. I have taken your PC segments and weighted the percentages by memory usage for that segment. For the sake of argument lets assume the following memory usage: <$600 32MB $600-$1000 64MB $1000-$1500 128MB >$1500 128MB Here is your same table when weighted for DRAM used: 1999 2000 <$600 3.8% 5.1% $600-$1000 30.3% 32.4% $1000-$1500 37.6% 40.1% >$1500 28.3% 22.4% As you can see the $1000 and up segment uses 65.9% of all DRAM in 1999 and 62.5% in 2000. Of course this assumes DRAM usage will remain constant from 1999 to 2000. In reality average DRAM usage should increase for year 2000. High end PCs will have a high percentage of WinNT installs while low end will be entirely Win9x. WinNT requires more memory compared to Win9x. Win2000 is scheduled to be released by the end of this year. I expect Win2000 memory requirements to exceed WinNT 4.0. Regards, Jim