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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeffrey D who wrote (8061)	7/12/1999 9:09:00 PM
From: Nick	Respond to of 9523

Not sure when they announce, but this is via EarningsWhispers.com Last quarter the brokerage and online brokerage firms lead earnings season with the highest Earnings Whisper numbers and the highest earnings surprises overall. This quarter the expectations are a little lower, especially for the online brokerage firms, but should still be strong as a whole. The first test will be Monday before the bell when Ameritrade (AMTD) announces earnings; and there is a lot of confusion and mixed expectation over Ameritrade's earnings. The confusion starts with just what the consensus estimate is. First Call is saying the consensus estimate is $0.09 per share, the number Zacks gave us this week was $0.10 (up from $0.08 a few days ago), but some sites on the Internet are still reporting $0.08 and some have been reporting $0.03 all quarter. In addition to this confusion is the range of estimates. The low estimate is for a loss of $0.10 and the high estimate is for a gain of $0.18. Most analysts clearly believe that earnings will fall in the upper part of this range. The lower expectations appear to be lead by Bill Burnham at CS First Boston. Mr. Burnham has stated that online trading volume grew just 15% last quarter and, therefore, with Ameritrade's $300 million marketing plan beginning during the quarter, revenue growth has not met the growth in expenditures. The higher end of the expectations appears to be lead by analysts like Tim Butler at Pacific Crest Securities. Mr. Butler believes that Ameritrade's marketing plan and low commissions has allowed the company to gain market share and thus keep earnings around last quarter's level. Mr. Butler is expecting earnings of $0.14 and the low whisper number is $0.09. Most of the overall expectations for the entire online brokerage industry are that volume will be sufficient during the slow summer months to have a significant surprise and that the number of trades per account will continue to grow for Ameritrade. Our Earnings Whisper number for Ameritrade is $0.12. Both the high and low expectations surrounding Ameritrade are dampened by the company's quiet period due to registration for a public offering. The quiet period is preventing the company from having a conference call after earnings are announced. Ameritrade's earnings will be looked at very heavily as an indication of what earnings will be for other online firms – like E*Trade (EGRP), which is reporting this week as well. The analysts following Bank of America (BAC), as opposed to Pfizer, have been raising their estimates over the past few weeks. In fact, a lot of financial institutions are expected to surprise in the coming weeks. Bank of America has seen their estimates increase by three cents lately, and our Earnings Whisper number indicates a two cent surprise. The top estimate is for $1.16 and the low estimate is for $1.07, with most analysts suggesting the company will report earnings in the upper part of that range. Analysts from Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, CS First Boston, and others have increased their expectations in the past few weeks. There are 15 analysts following Coca-Cola (KO) with an average estimate of $0.39. The high estimate is $0.43 and the low is $0.38. The estimates have decreased by two cents since the company warned on June 30th that this quarter's earnings would reflect weak sales. Andrew Conway from Morgan Stanley Dean Witter was the first to lower estimates and others soon followed. But the current estimate is eight cents below last year's earnings, and most believe that there is some room to surprise here. Our Earnings Whisper number is $0.40. The company most likely to report earning inline with the analysts' estimates is Pfizer (PFE). Most analysts feel that the company will report earnings of $0.17 and our Earnings Whisper number is also $0.17. This number has decreased over the past couple of months due to restrictions on Trovan, with analysts from Gruntal & Co. to Salomon Smith Barney all lowering estimates. You should note that Zacks is reporting a consensus estimate of $0.18 because an analyst, who will remain unnamed, has not adjusted his estimate for Pfizer's split on 7/1/99.