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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (6744)	7/12/1999 8:58:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Ian's MTSN is doing pretty good too. Have I been promoted? ...or MTSN demoted? <vbg>

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (6744)	7/12/1999 10:12:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Tim: Re: "They're starting to have a luv in on the CYMI thread." It's okay. There are a lot of folks who have been waiting a long time for the CYMI surge and it looks to be right around the corner. It looks as if my crystal ball might hit the mark too <g>: techstocks.com I think there people are missing the boat on CYMI as it is really a derivative investment in ASML. ASML is about 42% of CYMI laser sales and as ASML goes so does CYMI. Why would the likes of ING initiate coverage on a US semicapex company like CYMI? Because it sees the link. And ASML is really the AMAT of lithography. It has taken share in the downturn and has continued to take share from Canon and Nikon as their order backlog is strong. Thus, the CYMI derivative relationship increases as ASML grows. And ASML reports ahead of CYMI so investors will grasp the connection if ASML reports and guides as anticipated. CYMI could sky as a result of the connection being made in the market. Other than AMAT, ASML may be the only company I would consider doing a round trip with from peak to trough. Fortunately, I loaded up on ASML at $13 and change back in mid October and I still hold those shares today. With respect to CYMI, it is my largest holding currently in dollar terms thanks to the anticipated run. But watch the CYMI thread for crowd behavior formation in the form of day traders and johnny-come-too-lates. You could well see it in the coming month. In fact, watch the entire sector for crowd formation behavior as it could signal an intermediate term top IMO. SEMICON West could be phase one. Earnings and guidance could be phase two. Mo- mo movement could be phase three. Price plateau and then correction in the sector. All IMO but what do I know? Time will tell all. I have seen the beginnings of this phenom. over the past several days on CNBC. Some institutional chick said yesterday that AMAT is a good buy now for the next year. Sorry lady, but you don't tell grandma to buy AMAT well into the cycle at $74 with the intention of holding on to it for a year. I heard a local call in show with some lady asking if she should buy TER at $74. Yah, lady here are my shares. Enjoy taking the loss in a year or two as you have no clue as to the dark side of this sector. God, I am cynical <g>. Re: "SFAM may follow if NVLS, TER or KLAC decide to broaden their product base to compete with AMAT." SFAM should do okay regardless short term. Nobody knows as the company has given no guidance. Big boys don't like that notion. Us little guys took advantage of their reluctance back in the $10 to $12 range. Some certainty always comes with a price <g>.