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Non-Tech : Knight/Trimark Group, Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: oilbabe who wrote (2276)	7/12/1999 11:45:00 PM
From: Joseph Silent	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10027

For what its worth....... I think I'm "almost" a convert now -- after getting my feet wet today. If you ignore "background conditions" (CPI, PPI etc), the TA says there is a decent chance we are at or very near a bottom. Of course, I could be wrong. But that's because we have "missing" data. :) (I mean market conditions). I'm looking at a 10-day hourly chart and basic indicators. I think anything longer is hopeless because the variability in data simply confounds. The running 95+% confidence interval (goofily called Bollinger Bands) shows a supporting bounce, albeit weak. [Under "normal conditions" (I don't consider a major dump of lockup shares tomorrow "normal"! If it does happen, the "normal" assumptions get locally violated and BB doesn't make sense in this neighbourhood) the probability of "tanking" below the bottom band is small]. What lends "support" to a "bounce" is that the slow stochastic says buy around here. The MACD is still headed down, but we know its a delayed signal, esp with things that move violently. The RSI is around 30, which appears to be a "textbook" bottom. Strike 55 is a candidate for max open interest. So we have some independent numerical confirmations of a near-term bottom. But, all this is hopeless if there is a lockup share dump, or we are hit by bad CPI and PPI numbers. Let us pray. :) Joseph