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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (22506)	7/13/1999 9:20:00 AM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

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To: orkrious who wrote (22506)	7/13/1999 1:53:00 PM
From: BillyG	Respond to of 25960

Chip equipment suppliers now expect 9% growth in '99, says survey A service of Semiconductor Business News, CMP Media Inc. Story posted 10 a.m. EST/7 a.m., PST, 7/13/99 By J. Robert Lineback SAN FRANCISCO -- A recent survey of semiconductor equipment suppliers shows growing confidence in this year's expected recovery in capital spending by chip makers, but executives attending the Semicon West '99 trade show here say they still expect to wait months before major new wafer fabs are announced. Most of the equipment sales are still focused on upgrading existing plants to squeeze more capacity out of fab lines or to move them to 0.18-micron processes, say managers. But things are looking much better for fab equipment suppliers, which were mauled last year by the industry's worst downturn in capital spending. After a revenues drop of 20.9% to $21.8 billion in 1998, suppliers are expecting a 9% increase to $23.8 billion in capital equipment sales worldwide, based on a survey conducted in May and June by the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade group. SEMI released its mid-year Capital Equipment Consensus Forecast at the Semicon West exhibition. "What a difference a year makes!" exclaimed Stanley Myers, president of SEMI, which runs the Semicon West trade fair. "The atmosphere is definitely upbeat but still cautious." Ironically, some of the caution is a result of the industry being blind sided by its inability to forecast business cycles in the late 1990s. At the start of 1999, SEMI's consensus forecast showed a flat year head as the industry worked off its excess production capacity. But now the outlook seem brighter. SEMI's mid-year consensus forecast--based on input from 85 trade association members in the U.S., Europe and Japan--shows wafer-processing equipment sales rising 9.8% to $15.6 billion from $14.6 billion in sales last year. Sales of chip-assembly and packaging equipment are expected to rise 13.3% to $1.7 billion from $1.5 billion in 1998. Test equipment revenues will grow 4.2% to $4.6 billion in 1999 from $4.4 billion last year, according to the respondents to the SEMI survey. (See table below summarizing the forecast.) Semiconductor equipment suppliers are being encouraged by continued strength in chip sales and the industry push to finer geometries as a way to lower costs and increase integration. Worldwide semiconductor sales are expected to rebound 13.9% to $143.1 billion in 1999 from $125.6 billion in 1998, according to a forecast being presented at a session today by analyst Fred Zieber, president of Pathfinder Research Inc. Chip sales slipped 8.5% in 1998, mostly due to price erosion and a glut of supplies. Zieber is predicting a strong recovery in DRAMs, which in recent months has suffered a relapse of steep price erosion in 64-megabit memories. His forecast shows DRAM revenues growing 31.4% to $18.4 billion in 1999 vs. $14 billion last year. But even with strong growth years in 2000 (+38.6%) and 2001 (+40.4%), total DRAM revenues will not reach the peak of 1995, when sales were $40.8 billion, according to Zieber. In 2001, DRAM revenues will climb up to $35.8 billion. Where capital spending is expected to go Worldwide revenues in $ billion Equipment segment 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Wafer process tools $18.5 $14.2 $15.6 $18.5 $23.0 Assembly gear $1.8 $1.5 $1.7 $2.0 $2.3 Testers $5.2 $4.4 $4.6 $5.4 $6.2 Other $2.0 $1.7 $1.9 $2.3 $2.7 Total $27.6 $21.8 $23.8 $28.1 $34.3 Source: SEMI Capital Equipment Consensus Forecast