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To: Wowzer who wrote (47845)	7/13/1999 10:15:00 AM
From: Think4Yourself	Respond to of 95453

API guestimates usually don't come out until around noon. My guess is that gasoline will be down HARD (4+Mil bbl).

To: Wowzer who wrote (47845)	7/13/1999 12:00:00 PM
From: Tomas	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Rory and K. Lingerfelt wrote: "Does anyone know what the API numbers are predicted at tonight?" "API guestimates usually don't come out until around noon" You can find the predictions here every Monday evening: crbindex.com "The APIs are going to be big tomorrow," a trader said. "Rumors are that there will be a build in gasoline, which could pop this bubble and drag down the market." Most brokers and traders expect that US gasoline stockpiles increased 500,000-barrels to 1.5-million barrels last week in a corrective move from the previous week's larger-than-expected 4.403 million-bpd drop. "People are going to focus on gasoline demand," a trader said, which surged to 9.25 million bpd the previous week. Meanwhile, crude stockpiles are expected to have dropped 500,000 barrels to 1.5 million barrels last week, while inventories of distillates are expected to have increased 1.0-2.0 million barrels.

To: Wowzer who wrote (47845)	7/13/1999 2:29:00 PM
From: Kerm Yerman	Respond to of 95453

Rory / API Forecast We're going for a record 4th straight week of surprising numerical data. Let's see if the forecast holds up this week. FORECAST - Crude stocks seen down, mogas up in APIs Traders and analysts forecast Tuesday a small draw in crude stocks in the United States and a slight build in gasoline stocks for the past week, as they expected gasoline demand to have moderated and as refinery runs moved a notch higher. Ahead of the weekly inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute (API), traders and analysts polled by Reuters said they feel that the gasoline demand in the week ended July 2 of about 9.3 million barrels per day (bpd) was a little exaggerated and that some correction was likely in the latest week. "Gasoline demand was so high (in the July 2 week)...the market will see that come down," said Jim Ritterbusch, a trader at Sweeney Oil in Chicago. Tim Evans, senior analyst at Thomson Global Markets, said historically, a decline of one million barrels in gasoline stocks was typical for the past week. However, after a big difference in the API and the U.S. Department of Energy numbers on gasoline for the July 2 week, "we can't help but think anything is possible going into this report," said Evans. He forecast a gasoline stock increase of between 2.0-3.0 million barrels as the API and DOE data move back into alignment. For the week ended July 2, the API painted a hugely bullish gasoline market, saying there was a draw of 4.4 million barrels. But the DOE did not confirm this, saying there instead was a build of 100,000 barrels, causing consternation in the markets, which for a while stalled in its march to the $20-a-barrel crude. Meanwhile, crude stocks were estimated to have been drawn down a slim 1.0 million barrels last week on average, based on analysts forecast of a 0.5 percentage point increase in refinery operating rates. While on average the draw was small, one trader said he wouldn't be surprised if the drop was as deep as three to four million barrels in the API report. Part of the reason, the trader said, was the divergence in the API and DOE crude stocks data in the July 2 week. The API said there was a decline of 1.9 million barrels while the DOE reported a much larger drop of 4.2 million barrels. "There may be some catching up on the API crude stats," the trader said. In the Reuters survey, two analysts bucked the trend and forecast that crude stocks increased by up to 2.0 million barrels. Thomson Global's Evans said recent weakness in the August-September calendar spread and arbitrage that may be telegraphing a rise. The other forecaster said he detected more foreign crude import shipments coming in last week. Those polled were almost unanimous in their forecast of what they called a seasonal build, with one calling for a build of 3.0 million barrels. Most said the API build of 1.3 million barrels would have to "correct" from last week against the DOE's bigger increase of 2.5 million barrels. One forecaster said there was a possibility of a small draw in heating oil, based on his forecast of refinery runs being unchanged to a little higher last week.