Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JDN who wrote (2036)	7/13/1999 11:13:00 AM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10293

JDN, A bottle of Zicam contains 120 metered doses and retails for between $8.99 and $10.99. The directions say to use it every 2 to 4 hours. It seems to me that Zicam is cheaper than the zinc lozenges that you are taking. Mad2, I appreciate your comments related to launching a new product, and certainly this adds risk to GumTech's chances of success. However, this doesn't qualify GumTech as a "scam" or "fraud" as some here have called them. I am not opposed to an honest discussion of GumTech, but I will fight tooth and nail with folks who use words such as "scam" or "fraud" as a characterization of this company. No investment comes without risk, and an investment in GUMM is no different. I understand the risks, and I am willing to take those risks, because I believe that the potential profits justify them. Between Zicam, nicotine gum, and GumTech's other successful products, I am confident that they will book close to $100 million in sales in the year 2000 and over $100 million in 2001. If things work out that way, they could earn $4 to $5 per share, and today's $12 stock price will look very cheap. It is no secret that Albertsons and Eckerds have reordered Zicam multiple times since the product was first launched in February. It is no secret that Rite-Aid just placed their first order for Zicam and will supply all their stores. It is no secret that Walmart will stock Zicam in the next month. It is no secret that other mainstream retailers are all lining up to stock Zicam. Did you know that the head buyer for Albertsons' cough and cold products used Zicam himself, and found that it worked, before he put it in their stores? These events, mitigate the risk that the company will fail at distribution. The company has also hired a very reputable advertising agency to handle the Zicam account. This mitigates the risk, to a degree, that the company will fail at marketing. GumTech's previous failures at marketing are due primarily to not having a good product to sell, or because their target markets were too small. They have always had relatively good distribution. I don't think the company will fail at marketing Zicam because the product works, it targets a market that is orders of magnitude larger than any of GumTech's previous products, and it's claims are substantiated by clinical studies. With regard to Bill's three minute look at the balance sheet, I would agree that one could conclude that the company's financial condition is "weak". However, a closer look will reveal a company whose revenues increased over 100% year to year from 1998 to 1999 and about 40% quarter to quarter for the past several quarters. It will reveal a company that is near break-even on an operational basis. It will reveal a company whose margins are expanding, and which will really take off, once they become profitable. It takes longer than three minutes to do the research that is necessary to prepare well thought-out proforma statements, and this is much more important than income statements and balance sheets that are one year old. Anyway, I have made my case to the folks here, and I would really prefer to ride into the sunset. The only reason that I keep posting here is because GUMM keeps coming up, and either people have legitimate questions that I feel compelled to answer, or other misrepresentations are stated that I feel compelled to refute. Best to all, Dan