To: Terry D. who wrote (956 ) 7/20/1999 6:05:00 PM From: BARRY ALLEN Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1263
How big is the herbal, home remedy market ? Well, herbals worldwide are predicted to be a multibillion dollar market and certainly the switch towards home medication and self-medication and self-preventative maintenance is certainly increasing. With government reform taking hold, ... they're all in favor of utilizing vitamins because they want you to take better care of yourself ... without them paying for it, (which) means you'll have a lower chance of ending up in the hospital. So the vitamin/nutritional market is going to continue to grow and grow rapidly. Now you have a problem right now which is industry-wide inventory problems, but consumer demand is continuing to grow. You've got side airbags, front airbags, head airbags, you've got standardized labels for fat in foods. You can't turn on your television without seeing an infomercial on an exercise this-or-that. There's one common underlying theme: people want to live longer.... If you put cheap oil in your car and cheap gas in your car do you think it's going to last as long? No. So for the world's most ultimate machine, the human body, why should you think that stopping at XY fast food chain is going to give your body the greatest duration? It won't. You've got to take supplements. Is this a concept that's swept the nation? "Pharmaceuticals represent the right prescripton for financial health longterm ." Jeffrey Kraws Everen Securities Nutritional supplements have grown rapidly year in, year out. When you started to get some promotion for it, when it started to appear on "20/20" and people were talking about St. John's Wort, people were talking about ginseng, people were talking about echinacea... I mean, the vast majority of people out there don't take vitamins. Yet they're not getting their eight healthy servings of fruit or vegetables a day. So on one hand you've got the FDA which isn't recognizing nutritional supplements; on the other hand you have nutritional supplements which are reimbursed as medicine in some foreign countries including the UK, and you've got nutritional supplements which have been used in China for thousands of years and are making people live longer. So you have to get to the middle ground between what is quack and what is real.... Take a look at American Home Products, the largest multivitamin franchise in the United States, (which has) 37 percent market share with Centrum Herbals and Centrum Silver. They recognize ... the benefit of taking nutriceuticals or nutritional supplements. How dangerous is the growing attention towards the regulation aspect of this? I don't think it's dangerous. It's going to be helpful. Those companies with the highest quality and the highest standards are going to do fine. Those guys who are mixing stuff in bathtubs aren't, and I think that the one thing you have to watch ... there's been too many people who have been skirting the issues and going around things that are regulated, and there's too many people who make claims for things that they shouldn't make claims for. Make sure that the things you're claiming can be backed up and that your product is safe and of the highest efficacy and you'll be fine. So you are bullish on the sector? With stocks like TwinLabs (TWLB: news, msgs) down from 49 to 8 over the long haul, unless you think people don't want to live longer you have to realize the nutritional sector is probably going to be poised for growth. The pharmaceutical sector is going to be poised for growth. I think the nutritional sector, if you choose the right companies, will be poised for growth also. Right now they're in the dumps. They've got anywhere from 3 to 9 months to get out of the inventory doldrums and then they're going to resume growth. So I'd call it bullish right now, but we're waiting for the turn.cbs.marketwatch.com