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To: shane forbes who wrote (19272)	7/14/1999 2:29:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

Took one more small gander at INTC's report to guage how they will meet the SIA forecast for MPU growth this year. On the AMAT thread Tony provided the following numbers: Message 10123471 So I see that inspite of INTC's 'conservatism' they were $400 million short in Q2 and ouch possibly as much as $900 - $1,000 million short in Q3 from the above estimate. Let's see - how many processors less is this? Or better how much price deterioration? Or better how much low end processor mixing going on? The only way they now meet the SIA forecast (bogus) is if INTC has better than 9 BILLION in revenues in Q4 or a 35+% sequential improvement over Q3... (The one catch here is that INTC appears to do about ~20% of their biz outside the MPU category and that will mess up the SIA MPU comparisons since no one readily knows how fast this area is growing. Also INTC is buying a lot of revenues and this makes comparisons difficult. Certainly the 14% seq. drop in the Architecture (MPUs + things like motherboards) is not a good sign.) Let's see if Christmas miracles do happen. From this vantage point it looks like a mighty tall order to me... Interestingly as well since INTC is such a large portion of the pie, this means the SIA 1999 forecast should come down 'in theory'. I don't think it will since other sections will do better than the SIA has forecast. The question is what will be the effect on the other semis. The market, unlike the last 2 years, realizes there are other biz besides the MPU and DRAM (PC) biz and may give some stocks the benefit of the doubt. LSI is immune to the PC nonsense but it will be interesting to see how the market reacts in the next few weeks.