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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael & B.Anne who wrote (7754)	7/14/1999 9:11:00 AM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78485

Cause seems unrelated to effect on predicted decline in chip earnings. The two causes listed - declining cost per MIP and a strong Asia - have applied throughout most of the history of semiconductors. During that period semi company earnings have generally risen. Am I missing something here?

To: Michael & B.Anne who wrote (7754)	7/14/1999 2:21:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78485

I see a resurgent Asia as a plus for semiconductors, and declining costs per MIPS as irrelevant. It is a commodity business with short-lived assets. A horrible capital-intensive business to be in. Very poor for long-term investors unless you've grabbed on to the biggest and baddest, whose capital and research expenditures dwarf even the revenues of its nearest competitor. Peripheral players in design (Xilinx, Altera) and patentable tech (Rambus) are the only way other to play these long-term, but they are perenially high-priced and risky. Mike