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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: borb who wrote (1970)	7/14/1999 5:26:00 AM
From: Step1	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3902

borb, the people who suggested 20k, at least on this thread, did so out of gut feelings if I remember well, since I asked them why they thought so. If I am mistaken, please correct me, no flame intended, but I have never seen any analytical proof behind the 20k target for this year. If you have one (and by analytical I suppose we mean TA, at least I do, for using fundamental analysis, a tough task especially with Japanese numbers, you would not know a specific target on an index, only that the fundamentals say "buy" or "sell"). And on the subject of P/E, historical p/e I hope. Unless you go back several years (impossible with the internet stocks) it doesn't mean much I think. Say a car maker like Ford decides to sell cars directly on the internet (sort of like Dell, not impossible) . Does it go from a p/e of about 7 to 300 like many internet companies (the ones that do have the "e" anyway) ? I am not sure exactly what you meant when you said : >>Some guys take more analytical approach and came up 20K for the next wave. How do you think? (it is between 18K to 18.5K now)<< I personally posted that if we penetrated 17,500 level by more than 3% , we would see 18k with the momentum. Beyond that I will not say 20k because I don't know, but if gut feeling is good enough, then I say back to 17,500 before we go any higher. I can t be more analytical than this for now, the server here was down for 2 days and I am swamped with work right now, so that will be it. I will at some point get back on some of the questions that were asked on the thread , I think from Dotcomm about NTT DoCoMo and its share price though. all the best sg

To: borb who wrote (1970)	7/17/1999 11:35:00 AM
From: Fun-da-Mental#1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

"20K for the next wave"? Time to think beyond that! Where should we look for stock price growth in the next ten years? America, where prices have been going up, what, 20% a year through the 90s? or Japan, where we're still way below the high of 1989? And where the interest rate is what, one percent maybe? Right now the Japanese are holding their savings in cash because they can't earn interest and the stock market's been going down for so long, but once it sinks in that the market's going up again WATCH OUT! The money going into the Japanese market right now is coming from foreigners, Americans who can't believe that the DOW is going to go up forever and who think Japan offers better risk/reward. Fun-da-Mental

To: borb who wrote (1970)	7/22/1999 8:21:00 AM
From: Fun-da-Mental#1	Respond to of 3902

OT, I have to say something about P/E. Maybe P/E doesn't matter for a new company, but if a company has been around for a while and then they register a drop in earnings, or if they never made a profit at all, then that is going to hurt the share price bigtime. Furthermore, the P/E of any major market index can never fall below about 5 or get much above 50. The historical average is something like 10. I read that the P/E of the Nikkei went to 60 at its peak in 1989, and that obviously wasn't sustainable. I find it hard to believe it's 300 now. Maybe for some companies, but surely not for the index as a whole. Fun-da-Mental