To: Dale Baker who wrote (8746 ) 7/15/1999 8:11:00 PM From: Glenn Petersen Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 118717
I saw your comments on ONEM and I thought that you might be interested in this valuation analysis of some of the larger U.S. ISPs. The analysis is based, with the exception of ELNK which reported its second quarter results yesterday, on the first quarter numbers. I think it is safe to assume that the valuations for the other ISPs can each be reduced by at least 10% to reflect their second quarter results. ONEM has consistently trailed the others in terms of its valuation. I think that there are a number of reasons for this. Roll ups are never popular and the ONEM deal was a complicated. Secondly, since ONEM completed its IPO on March 30, 1999, the first quarter Form 10-Q consisted of pro forma results. Everyone is waiting for a proof of concept. ONEM has had a good run over the last several weeks and I think that it is going to pull back from its current level. I generally update this schedule each weekend and post it on the ONEM thread. Internal Qtr to Qtr Percentage Valuation per Market cap/ Subscriber Decline Subscriber Sales Growth From High BIZZ 2,824 8.39 11.31% 48.95% ELNK(3) 1,435 6.06 15.58% 39.50% FLAS 1,930 12.86 10.49% 48.54% GEEK 1,788 8.37 14.58% 66.39% MSPG 2,495 13.77 9.81% 64.66% ONEM (1) 1,579 8.02 11.77% 37.17% PRGY (2) 2,263 11.89 16.04% 46.05% (1) Adjusted for the acquisition of "The Grid." (2) Excludes Prodigy Classic subscribers. Adjusted for acquisition of 150,000 Cable & Wireless subscribers (transaction expected to close in fourth quarter) (3) Quarter ending June 30, 1999 The above analysis is based on a review of the most recent SEC filings and the July 15, 1999 closing prices.