To: SCOOBEY-DO who wrote (320 ) 7/14/1999 9:56:00 AM From: Jorjenzak Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 18222
FYI...here is a post predicting a summer decline in all the markets in general over the summer (which I expect personally) and some reasons why. The author is Rande IS, whom I respect greatly for his experience, knowledge and insights: Decline has been discussed mostly on HOME thread. . . .but briefly: Historically, this season sells off as brokers, MMs, etc go on vacation and volume becomes very low. There is no indication that this WON'T happen. . . volume is weak and we have been seeing a very broadbased decline. . . . look at your watch lists. . . .when they turn all red. . .you know something is going on. Near-term rebounds are often very narrow. . . only the very best stocks. We are now hearing reasons for going lower shoved in our faces. . .like Argentina yesterday. . . .markets around world sold off hard. . . yet the problem in Argentina wasn't all that bad after all. . .this will happen over and over, IMO. . . . and we have interest rate worries to hold things from running higher. . .and fears of China devaluation. . . and many other fears that we ignored during bull market, but fear during bear [within bull]. The summertime market becomes "manipulatable" and the powers that be make big money with these huge swings up and down. If earnings from the high-techs were fantastic, then it could postpone the inevitable. . . like the ground hog seeing his shadow. But Intel and Motorola both warned that next quarter would not be so hot. . .so there is no strong reason for market to stay up yet . . other biggies have yet to report, but doesn't look hopefull near-term. . . . .[market runs a few months into the future so the look aheads are more important than the actual earnings]. There are technical and economic factors that bear into picture as well. . .but I don't go into those, unless I need to.