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To: Thomas G. Busillo who wrote (47109)	7/14/1999 1:03:00 PM
From: benwood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Maybe he should write his reports more often, since the market apparently warrants it. <g> My dim memory recollects that when prices cratered a few years ago (1995?) they went through a similar phenomenon, almost at the same (local) retail price points. I recall the 4MB SIMM dropping to $49 at my favorite local shop, then quickly rising from there about 20% and sustaining a while, perhaps 3 months, before the cratering began again. That time, a transition was in effect to move to 16MB and so forth. This time, the 64MB DIMM reached $49, for several weeks though (at this same store) and now the price is at $59. Overall, it's a damped sinusoid on top of a decaying exponential. That is, this upshoot is a result of too great a drop recently, but will soon be followed by a smaller swing to a new low, etc. All seems like basic struggles between supply and demand, with greed (i.e. inventory manipulations) from the suppliers and the wholesalers causing the small oscillations. The main thing I think of is that even when prices got to their lows recently, I did not feel compelled to upgrade my Sparcstation, my WinNT box, nor my home PC. I think more and more people don't need more memory, since they already have more PC and more RAM than they care about.

To: Thomas G. Busillo who wrote (47109)	7/14/1999 2:29:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 53903

Tom, Good observations. As we have seen from Intel, the demand for pcs is in trouble, though it is a seasonally slightly stronger time. More DRAM is not being put into each box, so I don't think demand is the reason for the uptick. The mfrs. may have let inventories get low. However, if they are paying up for DRAM, they aren't going to make a lot of money on these free PCs. <g? I think they key to the price rise, and yesterday was the biggest rise, is that everyone is holding huge inventory stocks. They are trying to pull an OPEC scam, but DRAM is not like oil. They have done the same the past three years and Mu has screwed all the other conspirators every time. If they trust them this time, they deserve to lose money. <g> But, the fact is, they have to sell that inventory some day and as they are approaching breakeven this week, I think the temptation will be overwhelming. But, we'll see. Always an exciting stock and I am thrilled at the chance to buy puts with the bowwow in the 50s again.