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To: GS_Wall Street who wrote (2376)	7/14/1999 5:59:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake	Respond to of 10027

Greg - yes, it is often prudent to not trade the open (or first 15 minutes). However, as you well know, trading patterns change. Speaking personally, I trade the open very, very often. And I have found it very profitable. Yes, it is more risky, but also more profitable. I did a rough risk/reward analysis and I prefer to trade the open. Often I am motivated in my trades to trade the open, because I might hold an overnight position, and I'm playing the open (sell the gap up, short it, cover, go long etc.). Again, as a daytrader, I'm taught to go flat at the end of the day, but I performed a risk/reward analysis, and decided that it pays to hold overnight (except certain obvious situations where the risk is too high because of market conditions, or stock behavior). As to the MMs - what you describe is accurate. However, that is also changing. NITE is a perfect example. They actually downplay the spread profit. The real money is to be made taking trading positions. NITE is very out in front here, but increasingly that is where the MM game is going. And as the spread is cut, and will be cut, and as ECNs become a bigger part of trading, making a living from spread will be less and less rewarding. True, volume is expanding, but again - that's not where the money is. The volume expands slower than the spread is cut. When decimal pricing kicks in, the spread will take another hit. Also, note the following: NITE is a volume leader, yet they are moving away from a reliance on spread. If the big volume guy can't make it on the spread, what hope is there for the little guy MM? Speaking from what I see as a trader, I'd say that trend is well under way. I've seen a shift in the way MMs behave even since last year. Good luck! Morgan

To: GS_Wall Street who wrote (2376)	7/14/1999 6:28:00 PM
From: Raymond James Norris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10027

I've been posting day to day action from a chart perspective (so please skip this if you're not interested in technical analysis) on the Yahoo! board and thought some people here might also like to read it. >>>> Amid these boards and others on the Web, there has been mass pessimism over NITE's action Friday. Bears are rejoicing thinking that this is, "The beginning of the end," as they've told us on numerous occasions before. The skilled analyst, the one that doesn't accept how things appear but digs deeper to find out how they actually are, will recognize three key points from Friday's sell off. I've listed them below for the benefit of NITE bulls that may be rethinking their strategies as NITE bears who may not want to hear how it is. * The stock is still in a series of higher lows and higher highs. The last rally took the stock up to $60. We passed that when we hit $64 on our most recent rally. The last sell off took the stock down to $49. If the stock can turn around on this sell off before $49 (probably around $55), we will have confirmed the uptrend because the bears are getting weaker. * The On Balance Volume is still at a new high despite the fact the stock is 27% off its high. Friday's volume was not as strong as last Thursday's Volume when the stock hit $60. * The 20 Day moving Average, the best predictor of short term movements, is still below the stock price. In other words, the stock probably will find support at that average (around $55) and bounce off it to move up. I've traded NITE before, back in March and April, and I know how it trades well. It always makes a strong move to shake out weak hands before the big upmove. For reference see, late March's dip to $24 (post split) before the double, and late April's dip to $35, before the double. Note: Trading is a zero sums game. For every winner, there is a loser. Therefore, for any stock to move up, it requires a host of Losers, people who are betting the wrong way. As such, NITE is fortunate to have a ready supply of them. Simply look at the sentiment of this board to determine if there's a sufficeint supply of people betting the wrong way. And there is... Conservatively Yours, Raymond J. Norris

To: GS_Wall Street who wrote (2376)	7/14/1999 6:30:00 PM
From: Raymond James Norris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10027

Today's action from a Chart Perspective: Two important things occurred today. First and foremost, notice that NITE has ended the series of lower lows each day. Today's low is higher than yesterday's - one positive sign. Second, if you take a look at Yahoo's Intraday chart at finance.yahoo.com you'll see something interesting. Around 3:45, huge volume came into NITE on the upside. Look carefully at the ending hour and how the price jumped up $1 in a matter of minutes. That was smart money coming into the stock - and a lot of it. How do I know it's smart money and not "dumb money?" Smart money always enters or exits a stock the last half hour of trading. An old adage on Wall Street is "The amateurs trade at the open and the professionals trade at the close." The best time to trade is near the end of the day because the "smart money" or "professionals" are usually right because it's their buying or selling that will move the stock. Was NITE's bounce off this $55 level a coencident? I think not. The stock has found "support" at its 20 day moving average which is at $55. This means bulls are strong enough to keep the stock from slipping below the average of the price for the past 20 days. Stocks that bounce off their 20 day average usually go on to make strong rallies. Microsoft, Cisco, and Amazon all bounced off this average recently and are making nice rallies. I look forward to tomorrow where I believe NITE will continue moving up and remove all doubt that this past sell off ended on yet a higher level than the previous one. The bulls are growing and are in control.... Conservatively Yours, Raymond J. Norris