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To: Ram Seetharaman who wrote (19284)	7/14/1999 7:04:00 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

I am trying to figure out at what price I should get completely out (or almost completely out) of this stock. If next year's earnings do exceed the average target of $1.86 and hit $2.00 or thereabouts, then the street will up the 2001 target to $2.80 or so (40% increase). At a forward P/E of 35, that will put the stock price at $98. So, if we hit anywhere between 90 and 100 next year (or sooner, of course), I feel that will be a good time to get out of this completely...

To: Ram Seetharaman who wrote (19284)	7/14/1999 9:11:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

Remember late 1995 (?) or thereabouts when Fidelity said they were buying MU and actually they were selling - the Vinik episode. Not saying that's what's going on here. In fact I do suspect once the rates got upped by those 25 basis points and it was indicated that this would be it, a lot of funds went straight after the big high techs regardless of valuation and so I do think they are buying. Still just because they are buying does not make it a good purchase. As I've said before the easiest money has long been made. It gets harder from now on... As to Intel explain to me how a company that has earnings expectations ratcheted down (pre- merger related numbers) goes up. Nothing more than a scam IMHO. Here's some straightforward math. Before the c.call I thought they would do let's say 100 dollars in revenues and say a 55% gross margin - so they get $55 as gross profit. Now after the c.call they are likely going to do $90 and generate 60% gross margin or $54 in gross profit. So what is a better number $55 before or $54 after? Better note that SG&A and R&D are likely up as well so your EBIT goes down even more now... Amazing. Like I said if there was an inventory clearance then that brightens things up a bit but going forward over the intermediate term I still think it is far from being a bed of roses at this stage. The other point in Intel's favor is that the market may be reading the higher GM as a better pricing environment which is likely to be the case. Still it is only the bottom line that is significant and all this excitement about higher GMs is kind of like saying the day before Hiroshima it is going to be pleasant because the weather forecasters say it will be nice and sunny outside - missing the big picture by a country mile. Intel should likely be about 20-25% lower from its current valuation. But it is not alone. A lot of the others should likely be about 20-25% less. The biggest joke I have noticed is the news reports when reporters ask people for opinions for INTC - a company with a 190 billion capitalization that everyone and their dog owns a part of. How can you possibly get anything but the 'future is so bright' blah blah blah from this bunch? In fact it is ludicrous to see the opinion posted only later on to have the reporter disclose that the interviewee's fund owns 500,000 shares or x% of INTC. Nuff said. We shall see...