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Biotech / Medical : VPHM - Viropharma Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: moby_dick who wrote (109)	7/14/1999 7:11:00 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2557

Make a graph of market cap versus time for a typical, successful biopharma. Assume that they have control of a single, patented "product", and that it will achieve 50% penetration of a $200 million market. Assume that they are six months short of filing an NDA (you are not correct with respect to your timing assumption) and that margins will be typical for a pharmaceutical. What market cap did you assign for this time point? What market cap do you show for 18 months from now? ViroPharma is well into that curve. I assure you that virtually every pharma with an interest in acute care medicine is looking at Plec, and that they don't scoff at the thought of markets ten times this size. Sorry if I use "million-dollar words". Senior management at this company came almost exclusively from Sanofi. Do you think that they're going to go on CNBC and talk about targeting an indication that they haven't addressed with clinicals? If so, you aren't aware of how a pharma interacts with regulatory agencies. EVERYONE in the pharma industry knows that an eventual goal for this research is to address the potential of plec for prophylaxis.