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Technology Stocks : PMC-Sierra (PMCS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: charliex who wrote (2561)	7/14/1999 9:34:00 PM
From: Trader Dave	Respond to of 3818

working in the industry, sales for PMCS has increased at least 20% to it main clients, over the same period last year - even if oper. profits. went down (highly unlikely), NI will increase by 10-20% If your figures are correct, then pmcs will be a teenager in 5 minutes. I certainly hope you are discussing about 10% to 20% SEQUENTIAL increases and not yearly. I disagree with your assessment of a major move. In case you hadn't noticed, PMCS is already up 100% in 90 days. The stock is priced for perfection and results had damned well better be perfect or, like vtss, we'll get a 10% haircut with just a "good" quarter. The only way we'll get a MAJOR move is a significant blow out and upside revision. That may be in the works eventually, but my guess is the management will suppress the upside from the massive acceleration in design wins for as long as possible and even then only allow gradual upside revisions to estimates. Tight float? what on earth are you talking about? Institutional ownership can be extremely dangerous. Last summer when the company got an opportunity to increase R&D to take advantage of new opportunities, your beloved institutions took PMCS from the mid $40's to $30 in a matter of minutes. Individual investors are often better long term shareholders than institutions although that is changing thanks to the day traders. The bottom line, your "tight float" comment is completely wrong. Bulldozer can be very difficult to deal with if you cross him, no argument about that. However, his objection, like the other response to your post, was to your obscenity laden, mindless hypstering. Do you really think your first post added any value? Although BD is intolerant of bandwidth wasting drivel, I would argue that an awful lot of people think he adds as much value as some of the best contributors to this thread. TD

To: charliex who wrote (2561)	7/15/1999 1:11:00 AM
From: Toby Zidle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3818

Charliex, I'm glad that Trader Dave got to reply to your posting before I did. That makes mine so much easier to write, because Dave covered the main points so saliently. But you are due credit for responding with the reasons you believe $85 is next week's target. From there, we can build a dialogue. First, now, Trader Dave has already posted a well-reasoned reply as to why he thinks that will not happen. I concur with his thoughts. I can only add a few supplementary ideas. Dave pointed out that PMCS has gained 100% in the last 90 days. Such gains do not happen simply because we like Canadian chip companies. They occur because investors are convinced that PMCS represents an extraordinary growth situation. Even if we uncritically accepted all six of your points of rationale for an $85 price next week, some of these have already been anticipated. To use an external analogy, why didn't the Dow crater some 500 points when the Fed recently raised interest rates? Because we knew it was likely to happen and priced it into the DJIA ahead of time. Similarly with PMCS, your valid points have been anticipated and priced into the stock as it gained its 100% over the past three months. Thus, whatever positive effects beating the 'whisper numbers' or analyst revisions would have, most of it is already in the price. The residual effect is good for only about $5 at most. People tend to want to believe in strong growth of a company. Thus it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. This explains why some stocks get hit so badly when they meet the Street estimates, but not the 'whisper numbers'. The prophecy got shattered. I think, Charliex, that you didn't consider this aspect when you predicted $85 next week or in January when you predicted a $15-$20 price jump "next week". (https://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=7372075) It didn't take "next week" to gain that $15-$20. It took at least three months. I, too, believe PMCS is an $85 stock. My time expectation, however, is 6-10 weeks if there is no major high-tech market correction, 4+ months if there is a correction. Further, we don't WANT an $85 price next week. It's too much, too soon and will only lead to significant profit-taking, shorting, and a general break in price momentum. We're not looking for a stock that gains 25% every two weeks. We prefer slower and steady growth. Perhaps it requires more patience with PMCS than you want to dedicate to it, but ultimately stable, steady growth is more rewarding than the volatile ups and downs. One final topic: "Bulldozer". I agree with you that BD's response to you was more abrupt that it should have been. However, before you go on attributing "pathetic existences", you really ought to take the time to read Bulldozer's contributions over the past 200 or 300 postings. Those of us who have read this thread for the past several months recognize the depth of BD's knowledge of the chip industry in general and PMCS in particular. His is a unique and well-respected input. It is true that BD is not tactful to those who ask questions that had been answered in postings a couple of weeks earlier. He expects questioners to have done some homework, to put in some effort at least compatible with the effort that one has to make to answer those questions. Another way of saying, "do some preliminary 'due diligence.'" I suggest, charliex, that you put a little more evidence of 'due diligence' into your future postings -- and especially, put in some DD in reviewing Bulldozer's contributions here before negatively characterizing his relationships with others on this thread. If you can do that, I think you'll find that your future interchanges with others on the PMCS board can be quite rewarding.