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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (67750)	7/15/1999 1:47:00 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

>> I wonder what happens to eBay's earnings if Beanie Bay trades go down by 15% and high-end categories like Photo and Electonics trades go up by 15%. << You're point is absolutely relevant. I have thought about it, and obviously have no answer without the Q report or 10-Q and 10-K. The reasonable thing to assume is that the mix will not vary dramatically from Q to Q. Also, I don't ascribe the slow growth of auction counts to technical outages. I wonder if the demand for eBay's service is past the explosive growth stage (KIS refers to it as the law of large numbers). I did for a while try to examine the completed auctions and see what kind of prices prevail in the large categories. It was too hard and I gave up. But an impression is that a large number of auctions had zero bids on the final day. Sometimes half of a category. ANd frequently a fourth. Another impression from examining the 10-Q is that eBay's accounting has big swings in expenses, depreciation, non-operational rev, etc.... I think it is fully within their capability to report whatever they want for Q2. So very probably the focus will be on auction revenue, since that can not be manipulated. Truly the uncertainties of the big Internet stocks are much more interesting than any Las Vegas casino game.

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (67750)	7/15/1999 12:37:00 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Respond to of 164684

I wonder what happens to eBay's earnings if Beanie Bay trades go down by 15% and high-end categories like Photo and Electonics trades go up by 15%. For high end merchandise they still have that issue of ebay acting as a sort of cheap storefront for 2nd-grade retailers. I saw this in jewelery... somebody named "Tiffany's" is auctioning off everything for pages and pages... there is no way to look for anything that is from the real Tiffany's... this is a problem for the high-end goods. I think they need an ebay webmaster like on SI to peruse the quality of the auctions etc. otherwise people like me will tune out. The "beanie bay".... now thats funny