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To: Jeff Leader who wrote (47153)	7/15/1999 9:27:00 AM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Jeff you said (But apparently it requires more intelligence than the average Wall St analyst possesses.) I expect red ink from MU for another 6-9 months MINIMUM. MU has gotten harder to trade recently because Wall Street increasingly looks our further than 6-9 months. MU used to be easy to trade when you could look at the current quarter or the next quarter and anticipate what the stock price would do. But the market is looking further out all the time. I expect a pickup in DRAM sometime next year as various players divert capacity to other purposes, but I wasn't expecting this to be priced into the stock until this fall. Unfortunately Wall Street is ahead of me and is already pricing it in. Carl

To: Jeff Leader who wrote (47153)	7/15/1999 12:23:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 53903

jeff, excellent points. if you call mu they will tell you that their inventory stands at 80 million per fleckenstein. that was up from q ending 60 million. perhaps "no" ought to be defined ;-) i wonder if the naive rumor believer would like to have "no" dram stacked on his head ;-) hey, what are some tons of dram between friends ;-) mu seems to have goosed the rumor mill. ink a couple deals with low end boxmakers and bam, put out the rumors and restrict output. for a while... hey, i wonder if the low end deals included 3 for 2 kind of "incentives?" if so, mu's real asp might be lower than expected. i'm sure they fluff it up and don't include the three chips and only the two. but, it will impact the income and balance sheets. in fact, i wonder if that is the scam du jour this time around... >>IMO the recent increase in DRAM prices is temporary. Prices were probably overly depressed in late June due to end-of-quarter deal-making. A bounce was no surprise. But the glut remains, and MU's inventory is out of control. So prices will trend lower. And lest you get too excited over $5.50 DRAM prices, recall that MU's ASP last Q was about $7. And they lost money. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that this Q will be worse. (But apparently it requires more intelligence than the average Wall St analyst possesses.) I expect red ink from MU for another 6-9 months MINIMUM.<<