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Strategies & Market Trends : The Stock Market Bubble -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (2827)	7/15/1999 1:54:00 PM
From: JZGalt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3339

Mike, That's just fun with numbers. Take today's close and compound the dow by 10% per year for 25 years and I get 121,175. The wonders of compounding. Duh! One thing that might upset the apple cart is we are starting from an above average growth period, so reversion to the norm of 10% price growth may get hit by a period of below average growth after the boomers start to become more likely to pull money out of the market to live vs. "saving" for retirement. This might last almost a generation since people seem to be living much longer these days past retirement. If you go out to 2008, and then cut the growth to 7.5% as more money is drawn out over next 17 years, you come out with a target of 82,000. 2008 is where Harry Dent says the tipover will occur if I remember correctly. Acampora made a similar bold pronouncement in his book a few years back and counted only on the market staying at or above historical growth averages. So why were you really excited? Tip of day, if you have young children, don't teach them the stock market is the way to make money. Real estate might be back in vogue then. <grin> Once they have children, grandpa or grandma should sit them down and explain the "rally of the 1990's" and how I paid for your college education. Markets skip generations. ---- Dave