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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (20211)	7/15/1999 5:02:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

TINY BUBBLES FORTUCAST FINANCIAL TIMER PRECISE TIMING AND MOVEMENT ANALYSIS BY BARRY ROSEN “Serving Futures Traders Since 1987” UPDATED JULY 14 FOR MARKETS OF JULY 15, 1999 STOCKS and SEPT. S & P e-minis WEEKLY CHART TREND: Higher to DOW 12658. DAILY CHART TREND: Higher. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Higher. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 7/15 H TURN: 8/5-6 H TURN: 8/99 H DAY TRADING STRATEGY: Buy 1401 with a 1394 stop. Exit market on close. SHORT-TERM POSITION TRADING STRATEGY: Hold longs with a 1389 stop. Exit 1449. (07/15) DAY TRADER'S SUMMARY: The word on the street is that there are a lot of July call options just above the 1420 region and the writers are frantically trying to keep the market below that level. Energy again looks positive on Thursday and hourly stochastics have turned up. Worst case scenario would be a trading range between 1400-1415. We think this market is too dangerous to sell but we would buy the pullback to the 1400 support level. Cycles are positive and we expect that the market should start moving higher now. Look for support at 1400, 1396 and 1392, with resistance at 1408, 1412, 1420 and 1424. The Sept. S & P still looks headed for the 1450 region. Worst downside should be the 1390-1392 or if the DOW falls to 11070. DAY-TRADER'S BEST TRADING IDEAS: Given the recent days of consolidation, we will be patient with day-trades and buy at the lower support level. Bullish energy does seems to increase after the first few hours of trading into the close so we an early buy may be warranted. (07/15) The short-term target for the DOW is 11,500, and despite the struggle the last few days, we are inclined to see this market break to the upside. Look for support at 11075 if we do manage an early push lower. Overall, we would continue to accumulate as this bull is not over and we are extending our time window for a high into the first week of August and even looking for a secondary high as late as the week of August 24-28. We are expecting a messy correction between about August 6-11, and it may jolt everyone. OVERALL: The close above DOW 10900 was very positive and now allows the higher target on the DOW to come in at 12,680. That translates at least 1540 on the S & P cash and possibly as high as 1588 on the S & P cash. That means the summer rally should go into full swing. We have been confident that the bonds would rally into July or even early August and that will support a stock market rally so we would buy the dips and continue to hold long funds. Our June 14 position trade long for mutual funds is looking much better now that all the doubt is gone after the post-FOMC rally. BIGGER PICTURE: The technical breakout on Wednesday, June 30 helps eliminate all doubts about a summer rally. We have been feeling that the DOW needed one more new high--and looking at the yearly charts, a pattern completion in the 12,500-12,600 would be very complete. We will watch patterns but expect to at least be higher into the week of August 6 and we are open to further upside in August depending on where we are in the pattern. There appears to be a secondary high as late as August 24-28 if we can get through a nasty cycle in early August. Once the new high comes in, we will get a nasty correction that will quickly go to DOW 9200 and probably last into November; we are open to a deeper correction but will not speculate about it until we can measure it. OEX NOTES: (07/15) Stand aside. OPTIONS TRADERS: We recommend that you switch to trading mini contracts on the S & P since options are so unforgiving. If you choose options, make sure you evaluate delta decay of options, manage your money and buy options that have enough time in them and do not trade against the major weekly chart trend. SEPT. T-BONDS WEEKLY CHART TREND: Bottoming and higher to at least 118.08. DAILY CHART TREND: Higher. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Bottoming and higher. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 7/14 H TURN: 7/26 H TURN: 8/99 H SHORT-TERM POSITION TRADING STRATEGY: Hold longs with a 115.00 stop. Exit 1/2 position at the 118.08 region. DAY TRADING STRATEGY: Buy 116.24 or better with a 116.10 stop. Exit 118.08 oco market on close Thursday. (07/15) The minimum downside in pattern came in on Wednesday. We should not fall any farther on Thursday, but if we do, look for support at 116.16 and 116.13. Resistance is at 117.11. The chances for 118.09-118.15 have fallen to about 42% but we are willing to see what happens on Thursday. Once we hit the 118.09 region, then we may be setting up for a fall to the 115.15 region. Still, we should patiently wait until at least early August for a slight new high to 120 or a max. upside of 121-122. LONGER TERM (6/25) The minimum bounce on bonds would be back to the 118.08 region with a max. rally to the 120 region. The minimum time window is the July 26 area but early August is possible for a secondary target. AUG. GOLD WEEKLY CHART TREND: Lower to 249. DAILY CHART TREND: Lower. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Sideways to higher. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 7/19 L TURN: 7/19 L TURN: 8/99 L; 11/99 H SWING TRADING STRATEGY: Stand aside. SHORT-TERM POSITION TRADING STRATEGY: Buy 251 and 249.50 with a 247 stop. (07/15) Gold hit the minimum downside but still could ratchet lower to the 249-250 region where accumulation is somewhat warranted. That could take until Monday to manifest. OVERALL: I favor the 15-point decline from the July 6 high and think we can favor shorts until we hit the 249 region for now. Still no major cycle low until early August. BIGGER PICTURE: With 6 cycle lows dominating the first two weeks of August and seasonals down into then, we will have to be patient with gold. If gold goes much above the 277 region, then probably an early cycle low is in. LONGER-TERM (5/17): Weekly chart patterns suggest a low in the 249 region and then a $72.00 bounce. We expect that gold will bottom and base over the next few months and then take-off with crude into Nov. 1999. SEPT. CRUDE DAILY CHART TREND: Topping. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Topping. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: Researching TURN: Researching TURN: 8/99 L SHORT-TERM POSITION TRADING STRATEGY: Exit longs at 2028. Keep stops at 1991. Sell 2028 mit with a 2076 stop. (07/15) Our exit target only happened in the night session so we missed a nice profit and will bail on a short rebound. Daily stochastics are about to cross to the downside and our next turn is into early Monday as a low. Downside energy looks like it will accelerate on Friday. The party is probably over for the bulls but we still cannot rule out a total weekly chart high until we close below 1950. Gas still projects higher numbers. LONGER-TERM: (6/30) Look for pullbacks into July and August before the next major swing to the upside occurs. The next low should hold 1600, and the November high should go to at least the 2856 region if not the 3250 region.