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To: Jeff Dryer who wrote (23011)7/15/1999 6:35:00 PM
From: Danny  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 27307
 
Jeff, every word you said regarding valuation is absolutely correct
based on the traditional valuation model. But that is not how
WS behaves right now. Internet revolution is changing everything.

Will traditional valuation model come back to life? Possibly yes
and possibly no. Nobody knows that. But to use a short term price
fluctuation on AOL and call it a return to valuation may make
one regret for life.

AOL is just as overvalued as it was last July. People who sold AOL
before the Oct correction may have had a brife 2-3 months congrat to
themselves, but are most likely regret that decision today after
watching AOL going up another 200%. The stories you heard last Oct
affected mostly short term traders. For any long time investors,
Oct of 1998 has been the BEST investment time in last 5 years.
You can even blindly pick up any stock then and enjoy a 100%
return at least by now.

All I am saying is that before we see a clear sign that internet
growth is slowing down and people are getting out of the sector,
just ride out the volatility and look into the future.



To: Jeff Dryer who wrote (23011)7/15/1999 7:28:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Respond to of 27307
 
Jeff, i agree with you and have been trimming back my long positions over the past few weeks - better out too early than to late. regards,

hb



To: Jeff Dryer who wrote (23011)7/15/1999 7:30:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Respond to of 27307
 
Jeff, i also think that investors (gamblers now) have been conditioned that the market will always come back. it may not next time. this mania virtually assures a devastating crash at some point.

regards,

hb