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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: taxman who wrote (26212)	7/15/1999 10:02:00 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

Looks like msft go either way. A loss of Bristol and poor earnings -> 92ish A win on bristol and solid earnings -> 105+ Other combination , in between

To: taxman who wrote (26212)	7/15/1999 10:09:00 PM
From: johnd	Respond to of 74651

news.com

To: taxman who wrote (26212)	7/16/1999 1:50:00 AM
From: Gerald Walls	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

who does 'they' refer to and how can someone make a stock close at a particular price--particularly one of the most heavily capitalized companies in the world? #reply-10527453 and (from last year) ==================== Cramer on the Options Firefight Over Intel By James J. Cramer 7/15/98 12:15 PM ET Now that Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) reported the in-line number everybody was looking for, the real battle begins. No, not the battle between the bearish Kurlaks from Merrill and the bullish Edelstones from Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. Everybody knows that battle. I'm talking about the conflict between those who hope that Intel goes out at 80 and those who bet that the gravitational pull of the strike price won't be strong enough to keep the stock down in the face of potential upgrades. This is not a piece about Pentium 6 yields. It is not a piece about chip inventories, or gross margins for that matter. It is a piece about a little-known war that goes on every quarter, the war between those who have speculated on Intel with near-term calls (July 80s, as I have), and those who feel that Intel can be "pinned" to the strike by expiration pressures. Let's back up a bit. First, I have no desire to write about my interpretation of the conference call or the quarter. If you were on it, your opinion is as good as mine. If you weren't, your broker's opinion, melded with your newspaper and Web accounts, is as good as mine. What I want to open your eyes to is a silent, bloodless campaign to keep Intel at the strike or let it expand beyond 80. In the hedge fund world I live in, there are two ways to speculate on a stock: the common and the options. If you thought Intel was going to generate an upside surprise or might garner a few upgrades after the quarter, you might want to buy the common stock. But how about if you were worried that there will be a shortfall? Why not buy the call instead? In this particular case, the July calls gave you the flexibility to capture the upside generated by the earnings report. (Intel reported Tuesday; the calls don't expire until Friday.) The problem with the call, of course, is that it is a zero-sum game. The guy who sold you the call wants that call to go out worthless. That's how he wins. You win by having the stock explode past the strike, hopefully far enough to make some serious bucks. Right now, as a call holder, I am very worried that there was not enough "juice" in the quarterly release or the conference call that can get this stock to break out from the strike pinning that I know will be attempted by all of those who are short the calls. The call shorts can do this by "laying" on the stock and continuing to bang the call down, making the stock look heavy and thereby discouraging buyers. It is all perfectly legal and perfectly beleaguering. It has a massively sour yet unseen impact on the stock price. But if Intel gets some upgrades and a head of steam, the call sellers can't work their dark magic and the stock will break out. That is the short-term battle that will determine the next three points in this stock. May the best man win. Of course, maybe Intel doesn't go up at all. Maybe it goes down. In some ways, that is a push for the call holder -- I won't lose any money below 80 -- and a home run for the call seller, who doesn't ever have to cover, as the call may go out worthless. For long-term holders, this column represents gibberish, the inside baseball account of what will really dominate the trading in this chip maker for the next 72 hours. But for short-term traders, it's the shooting match. I play both roles. I believe that barring unforeseen market downturns, this stock could trend higher. That's why I am long it. If it can't escape the gravitational pull of the strike this week, maybe the upside will be manifested next week, when there is no option-induced pressure. In the meantime, at least I know why the stock may not react as well as I would expect it to otherwise. I know this, because I have seen this pattern so many times in my trading life, particularly with Intel, that I have to factor in the options activity to get an accurate read about what is occurring in the common. I know this analysis may be a tad confusing to all but the option afficionados out there. That's okay. On Saturday, I will pull this piece apart in my Take Two, something that I didn't get a chance to do while on vacation. In the meantime, keep an eye on the options. They hold the key for now. ======================