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Technology Stocks : Concord Communications Inc (CCRD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mehitabel who wrote (56)	7/16/1999 1:34:00 PM
From: Robert L. Ray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 84

The conference call sounded pretty good to me except I'm not sure the market liked the ceo's earnings estimates/quidence for Q3. He estimated Q3 revenues of 15 1/2 - 16 1/2 million and earnings of 19 -20 cents. This isn't really a lot of gain sequentially over the current quarter of 15.1 revs and 19 cents earnings. But of course ceo's very often lowball estimates so they will be easier to meet or exceed. I played around with some numbers based on what he said late in the call in response to a question. He estimated in Q4 having 65 - 70 quota salesmen (seems like that was the term he used) and wound up estimating that each of these salesmen would average 1 - 1 1/2 million in sales. If you take the middle road and guesstimate 65 salesmen averaging 1.25 million each in sales and then divide that by 4 you come up with Q4 sales of 20.3 million which would be some pretty good growth. Add in that all of their salesmen may not be "quota" salesmen?? At any rate I'm not considering selling. The growth rate vs. pe looks good but I do hope for a better Q3 than the ceo's estimate. As I'm typeing I notice that were at 51 so I think the were taking a bit of a hit on the estimate plus the fact that people seem to like to play the wide swings on this stock. Bottom line is I think this company's products are in the right place at the right time.