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To: Brian Malloy who wrote (25806)	7/16/1999 11:19:00 AM
From: David E. Taylor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

Brian: According to the data in Cowen's "Internet Capitalist" publication, ADSL service is available to 10.4 million subscribers already, yet only 200,000 homes will have ADSL service by the end of this year, and only 400,000 by the end of 2000. In contrast, cable service is available to 23.2 million homes, 2 million are expected to be hooked up by the end of this year, and 4.3 million by the end of 2000. While these are all estimates and projections, they suggest that ADSL roll-out is not keeping up with either cable modem deployment or its inherent potential, given the relative numbers of customers that could sign up for either service right now. Whether ADSL is dragging its feet because of poor marketing or reluctance by the Bells to cannibalize their lucrative T1 income is not clear. However, it seems to me that the available ADSL flavors are aimed at the consumer rather than the business market, so my feeling is that ADSL is just not being aggressively marketed. Certainly, Bell Atlantic hasn't been beating on my door. I agree that T is fighting a rearguard action, and I'm convinced that "open-access" will be conceded in the near future. The lessons of the 56k "modem war" are fresh enough for all parties to see what will happen if they get bogged down in a protracted dispute. But the Bells need to get off the pot and get moving if they want ADSL to gain an equal share of the hard wired broadband market. David T.