SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: JGoren who wrote (35205)7/16/1999 2:00:00 AM
From: djane  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
 
Jubak's Future Fantastic 50 list of stocks [QCOM on list]
[Note: I nominated Globalstar (GSTRF) djane]

moneycentral.msn.com

Posted 7/16/99



Jubak's Picks

Check out Jim's top
stocks for the next 12
months.

50 Best

See Jim's list of the 50 best
stocks in the world for the
long term.

Several hundred
thousand individuals
read Jubak's Journal
during an average
month. Let's see if
putting our heads
together can
produce a winning
portfolio.

Jubak's Journal
Join in! Build the list of 50 future winners
Let's use our collective brainpower to create the Future Fantastic 50 list of
stocks. Send me your vote: What companies, in five years, will be global
winners with staying power?
By Jim Jubak

If two heads are better than one, how good would several hundred thousand
heads be? Let's build a portfolio together -- one I'll call the Future Fantastic 50
-- and see.

When I first began work on what is now the 50 Best Stocks in the World
portfolio, I sat alone in an office at the magazine where I used to work, putting
the list together from piles of research and historical data. While I drew on the
work of lots of analysts and experts, the final list was the product of just my
mind.

I think that's a pretty typical example of how investing has
worked -- until the rise of the Internet. Whether you were
an analyst on Wall Street, a stock-picking guru or an
individual investor working from home in your spare time,
you made your stock picks in isolation, hoping that your individual brain could
produce insights at least as good as the average and maybe even better.

Most of what appears on the Internet still follows that model. We read (or produce)
columns that are the opinions of one individual: good, bad or indifferent.

Building a better meta-opinion
But I think there are signs on the Internet of another way. In chat rooms and on
bulletin boards, investors hope that the exchange of opinions among individuals will
result in a better meta-opinion -- one that is the shared work of the group. E-mail and
discussions with individual readers even filter into a column like mine. The
challenges and the new viewpoints raised in those exchanges do influence the
stocks I pick and my take on specific strategies.

I'd like to take that process a step further and actually build and track a portfolio
that's the product of the community -- as loose as it may be -- that reads Jubak's
Journal. For this portfolio, I'm going to take a step back and serve more as a
moderator for the group than as the author of the portfolio. Judging from our usage
studies, several hundred thousand individuals read Jubak's Journal during an
average month. Let's see if putting our heads together can produce a winning
portfolio.

Here's the process I propose. We'll start with a relatively familiar framework -- that of
the 50 Best Stocks in the World -- and then give it a twist. That earlier portfolio is
built around a qualitative screen: The stocks on the list represent companies that
have built a competitive advantage in their industry that is so strong that I believe it
will last for at least five years, even if current management is completely lame. (Or, to
borrow Peter Lynch's formulation, look for companies that will succeed even if idiots
ran them, because sooner or later idiots will.) That screen has resulted in a portfolio
filled with names such as MSN MoneyCentral publisher Microsoft (MSFT),
Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) and Gillette (G). These are established companies that
have demonstrated clearly over the last five years or more that they've got the drop
on competitors -- big time.

'Boy, I wish'
But now I propose giving this screen a small, but important, twist. Rather than
requiring a company to have demonstrated beyond the shadow of a doubt that it is
a global winner with staying power, for this new portfolio, let's pick the stocks of
companies that we think will be in that position five years from now. Summarize the
new portfolio this way: If you were to look at these stocks in July 2004, you'd say
about each one, "Boy, I wish I'd have bought that five years ago, and I'd sure be
willing to hold that one for another five years."

I'm going to get the ball rolling on this list by giving you a list of 30 of my own
nominees culled from the 50 Best in the World portfolio, from the current Jubak's
Picks and some new ideas. I believe that in July 2004, each one of these stocks will
dominate its industry or niche in the way that a Boeing (BA), General Electric (GE),
or SAP (SAP) does now.

And then I'd like all of you to help complete the list. Click here to nominate your own
candidates. Since there's a lot of tabulation involved, I'm going to set an arbitrary
limit of ten nominees per person. Tell me, if you want, why you'd put this stock on
the list. Or just send a name. Ignore valuations when you're casting your votes --
these are stocks to buy over the long haul and don't have to be cheap today. And
finally, feel free to trash any of the picks I've made below. Enough negative mail and
I'll throw a company off the list.

I'm going to make counting the votes a rather inexact process. I'll certainly consider
the number of votes each stock gets, but I'll also give weight to the arguments for a
pick. And a stock with one vote and no supporting argument can still make the cut if
I think it's simply too brilliant a choice to be ignored. I'm going to do the counting in
this subjective way because I think this process is closer to a free-for-all discussion
where an individual can carry a group simply by the force of his or her argument.

If you were to look at
these stocks in July
2004, you'd say about
each one, "Boy, I
wish I'd have bought
that five years ago."
This column will stay live on the site longer than the usual Jubak's Journal --
both to give everyone more time to vote and because I'll be taking a short
vacation. The deadline for casting your votes -- and having them count
-- is midnight on Thursday, July 22. I'll attempt to have the votes counted
and publish the resulting portfolio in my July 30 column. As best as I can in
that space, I'll give the details on how each stock made the final Future
Fantastic 50 list. And starting with that column, I'll begin tracking the
performance of the list through a live portfolio attached to each Jubak's
Journal. (If you've got a question on this process, send it as quickly as
possible to the Future Fantastic 50 voting site under question No. 2. I'm also
accepting suggestions on a name for this portfolio.)

So here are my own initial nominees.

Twelve from the current 50 Best Stocks in the World:
American International Group (AIG)
Applied Materials (AMAT)
Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Coca-Cola (KO)
Intel (INTC)
MCI WorldCom (WCOM)
Microsoft (MSFT)
Pfizer (PFE)
Sealed Air (SEE)
Texas Instruments (TXN)
Wal-Mart Stores (WMT)
Walt Disney (DIS)

In each case, I think the company is on track to extend its already sizable
advantages into new markets or to roll over existing competitors to pick up
share in the current market.

Seven from Jubak's Picks:
America Online (AOL)
Broadcom (BRCM)
Charles Schwab (SCH)
EMC Corp. (EMC)
Inktomi (INKT)
Network Appliance (NTAP)
Nokia (NOK)

I think all these companies show signs of dominating their respective
industries or niches. They'd make the 50 Best Stocks in the World, I believe,
if they had longer track records.

More…
And finally, 11 new ideas:
Exodus Communications (EXDS)
IBM (IBM)
JDS Uniphase (UNPH)
Oracle (ORCL)
Qualcomm (QCOM)
RealNetworks (RNWK)
RF Micro Devices (RFMD)
Sun Microsystems (SUNW)
TSI International (TSFW)
Vitesse Semiconductor (VTSS)
Yahoo! (YHOO)

That makes 30 -- just a start, but enough to give you the idea, I trust.

I'll be waiting for your votes.



To: JGoren who wrote (35205)7/16/1999 2:00:00 AM
From: Ruffian  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 152472
 
Q News>

7/15/99 - (GIB) Mirror S.A. and CGI Sign MOU For US$39.9 Million IS/IT Systems Integration Contract

MONTREAL, Jul 15, 1999 (BUSINESS WIRE via COMTEX) -- Brazilian-based local and long-distance telephone services provider Mirror S.A. and CGI (TSE:GIB.A) (ME:GIB.A)
(NYSE:GIB ) today announced the signing ofa memorandum of understanding according to which CGI will provide Mirror S.A. with IS/IT systems integration services worth
US$39.9 million (CDN$57 million) over a 12-month period.

Based on the comprehensive MOU, CGI will coordinate the work of approximately 80 IT professionals in Rio de Janeiro. It will act as Mirror S.A."s prime integrator for a series
of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), point-of-sale and workforce management systems. CGI will also coordinate the implementation of IBM"s ICMS customer care and
billing solution. A formal agreement is expected to be signed by August 1, 1999.

"We are pleased to be working with CGI for the implementation and integration of these mission-critical systems," said Mirror S.A."s CEO, Gilberto Garbi. "We selected CGI
as our partner based on its strong reputation for delivering quality work - on time and on budget. In addition to their telecom expertise, they also have an extensive track record
in the integration of several systems and components within a single project," he added.

Jean Brassard, CGI"s President and COO, added: "We are delighted that CGI was selected as Mirror S.A."s primary partner to oversee the implementation and integration of
this full suite of customer and management systems. This is our first large contract in Brazil, a key South American market for us. We believe that the experience gained with
Mirror S.A. will allow us to secure more work with private and public organizations in this strong and growing telecom market."

Mirror S.A. is a consortium bringing together a unique combination of expertise in the areas of building and successfully managing telecommunications operations, advanced
technology, international finance and local Brazilian experience. BCI (Bell Canada International) owns a 34.4% interest in the consortium and is joined by WLL International
Inc. (34.4%), Qualcomm Incorporated (16.2%), the Liberman Group of Argentina (12.5%), and the Vicunha Group of Brazil (2.5%).

Mirror S.A. operates in the Northeast region of Brazil, comprised of 16 states and home to almost 90 million people, representing over half of the country"s population. Major
metropolitan areas covered by its license include Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte and Salvador. The consortium plans to service the area primarily using fixed wireless
technologies and expects to invest more than CDN$1.5 billion in building its state-of-the art network.

CGI is the largest independent information technology consulting firm in Canada and the fifth largest in North America, based on its revenue run rate of CDN$1.6 billion. Its
order backlog totals approximately CDN$8 billion and the company currently has proposals outstanding for an additional CDN$4 billion in potential large contracts. CGI has
10,000 professionals and provides end-to-end IT services and business solutions to 2,000 clients in Canada, the United States and more than 20 countries around the world.
CGI"s shares are listed on the New York Stock Exchange (GIB), as well as on the Toronto and Montreal exchanges (GIB.A). They are included in the Toronto Stock
Exchange"s TSE 300 Composite and TSE 100 indexes. Web site: www.cgi.ca.

All statements contained in this or any other press release of CGI Group Inc., or in any document filed by the Company with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission,
or in any other written or oral communication by or on behalf of the Company, that do not directly and exclusively relate to historical facts, constitute "forward looking
statements" within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Report Act of 1995. These statements represent the Company"s expectations and beliefs, and no
assurance can be giventhat the results described in such statements will be achieved.

This press release may contain forward looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties, including statements regarding the outlook for the company"s
business and results of operations. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated. Such factors include, without
limitation, the various factors set forth in the Company"s annual report or Form 40F filed with the SEC and its Annual Information Form filed with Canadian securities
commissions, which important factors are included here by reference.



To: JGoren who wrote (35205)7/16/1999 3:36:00 AM
From: Bux  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 152472
 
I think and hope you are right about management being a little mum on the future. It's obviously very bright in all the major areas.

I listened to the Nextel conference call today because I was trying to understand their market valuation of 15.5 Bil. compared to the mighty Q's value of "only" 23.0 Bil. After all the Q holds the keys to 3-G worldwide and all Nextel has is a national network and the start of a few networks in other countries. They have massive debt, negative cash-flow that is not projected to turn positive in the visible future, massive investment in a technology that will not allow a competitive pricing structure, and they have sold off their most valuable assets (cell sites) to help keep them afloat and are now leasing them back.

Surprisingly, management managed to paint a very rosy picture looking forward carefully avoiding using the concept of "profit", instead focusing on less tangible things as growth, etc. An analyst asked how much they would need to spend on capacity improvements for the rest of the year, 1.5 Bil, 1.6 Bil? Management acted as if he had never asked that! There were lots of rosy statements about all the new subs and how they were keeping the average revenue/sub above $70/mo. (wait until the subs figure out they are over-paying) also how they were testing data services in six cities through the end of the year and if the tests are successful they will roll out data in the first Q of 2000. Churn had increased but was still the lowest in the industry.

I guess the high price is based on low churn, high revenue/sub, fast addition of new subs and data roll-out. What I see is a network that needs ungodly sums of capital and new spectrum if the current rate of growth is to be maintained. Where will this capital come from if competition forces lower prices? I've never shorted a stock and I won't short this one now since it's obviously got legs and investors are only looking towards the next earnings release oblivious to the big steam-roller called CDMA that is coming up behind it.

Somehow I sensed that management knows it's on a dead-end road but they need to keep the rosy facade up a while longer.

I realized that I don't know the first thing about shorting. If I short does my account go into margin (assuming I have no cash balance)? Can I remain short as long as I like and have the funds to guarantee the eventual purchase or can i be forced to cover for other reasons. If I can be forced to cover for reasons other than liquidity, what are my options if I think it is still going down? Does anyone know where I can find a FAQ on this? TIA

Bux



To: JGoren who wrote (35205)7/16/1999 11:32:00 AM
From: slacker711  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
 
Can anyone speculate on how the Thin Phone could be
affecting the report?


This is all from memory but FWIW....

1) I believe that Irwin and co stated that the Thinphone would make up about 20-25% of this quarter's phone production. I've sort of lost track of exactly what capacity the Q has but assuming 750k a month that would work out to 500-600 thousand phones.

2) I think that they also stated that GM's on the Thinphone would start out AT LEAST as good as on the current product line.

3) According to GP the Thinphone had better yields when starting out than the old product line currently has.

I dont know how much the Thinphone will contribute in total this quarter but I would think that effects really may start to be seen next quarter....especially if they continue to ramp production capacity.

Slacker