To: JGoren who wrote (35205 ) 7/16/1999 2:00:00 AM From: djane Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
Jubak's Future Fantastic 50 list of stocks [QCOM on list] [Note: I nominated Globalstar (GSTRF) djane]moneycentral.msn.com Posted 7/16/99 Jubak's Picks Check out Jim's top stocks for the next 12 months. 50 Best See Jim's list of the 50 best stocks in the world for the long term. Several hundred thousand individuals read Jubak's Journal during an average month. Let's see if putting our heads together can produce a winning portfolio. Jubak's Journal Join in! Build the list of 50 future winners Let's use our collective brainpower to create the Future Fantastic 50 list of stocks. Send me your vote: What companies, in five years, will be global winners with staying power? By Jim Jubak If two heads are better than one, how good would several hundred thousand heads be? Let's build a portfolio together -- one I'll call the Future Fantastic 50 -- and see. When I first began work on what is now the 50 Best Stocks in the World portfolio, I sat alone in an office at the magazine where I used to work, putting the list together from piles of research and historical data. While I drew on the work of lots of analysts and experts, the final list was the product of just my mind. I think that's a pretty typical example of how investing has worked -- until the rise of the Internet. Whether you were an analyst on Wall Street, a stock-picking guru or an individual investor working from home in your spare time, you made your stock picks in isolation, hoping that your individual brain could produce insights at least as good as the average and maybe even better. Most of what appears on the Internet still follows that model. We read (or produce) columns that are the opinions of one individual: good, bad or indifferent. Building a better meta-opinion But I think there are signs on the Internet of another way. In chat rooms and on bulletin boards, investors hope that the exchange of opinions among individuals will result in a better meta-opinion -- one that is the shared work of the group. E-mail and discussions with individual readers even filter into a column like mine. The challenges and the new viewpoints raised in those exchanges do influence the stocks I pick and my take on specific strategies. I'd like to take that process a step further and actually build and track a portfolio that's the product of the community -- as loose as it may be -- that reads Jubak's Journal. For this portfolio, I'm going to take a step back and serve more as a moderator for the group than as the author of the portfolio. Judging from our usage studies, several hundred thousand individuals read Jubak's Journal during an average month. Let's see if putting our heads together can produce a winning portfolio. Here's the process I propose. We'll start with a relatively familiar framework -- that of the 50 Best Stocks in the World -- and then give it a twist. That earlier portfolio is built around a qualitative screen: The stocks on the list represent companies that have built a competitive advantage in their industry that is so strong that I believe it will last for at least five years, even if current management is completely lame. (Or, to borrow Peter Lynch's formulation, look for companies that will succeed even if idiots ran them, because sooner or later idiots will.) That screen has resulted in a portfolio filled with names such as MSN MoneyCentral publisher Microsoft (MSFT), Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) and Gillette (G). These are established companies that have demonstrated clearly over the last five years or more that they've got the drop on competitors -- big time. 'Boy, I wish' But now I propose giving this screen a small, but important, twist. Rather than requiring a company to have demonstrated beyond the shadow of a doubt that it is a global winner with staying power, for this new portfolio, let's pick the stocks of companies that we think will be in that position five years from now. Summarize the new portfolio this way: If you were to look at these stocks in July 2004, you'd say about each one, "Boy, I wish I'd have bought that five years ago, and I'd sure be willing to hold that one for another five years." I'm going to get the ball rolling on this list by giving you a list of 30 of my own nominees culled from the 50 Best in the World portfolio, from the current Jubak's Picks and some new ideas. I believe that in July 2004, each one of these stocks will dominate its industry or niche in the way that a Boeing (BA), General Electric (GE), or SAP (SAP) does now. And then I'd like all of you to help complete the list. Click here to nominate your own candidates. Since there's a lot of tabulation involved, I'm going to set an arbitrary limit of ten nominees per person. Tell me, if you want, why you'd put this stock on the list. Or just send a name. Ignore valuations when you're casting your votes -- these are stocks to buy over the long haul and don't have to be cheap today. And finally, feel free to trash any of the picks I've made below. Enough negative mail and I'll throw a company off the list. I'm going to make counting the votes a rather inexact process. I'll certainly consider the number of votes each stock gets, but I'll also give weight to the arguments for a pick. And a stock with one vote and no supporting argument can still make the cut if I think it's simply too brilliant a choice to be ignored. I'm going to do the counting in this subjective way because I think this process is closer to a free-for-all discussion where an individual can carry a group simply by the force of his or her argument. If you were to look at these stocks in July 2004, you'd say about each one, "Boy, I wish I'd have bought that five years ago." This column will stay live on the site longer than the usual Jubak's Journal -- both to give everyone more time to vote and because I'll be taking a short vacation. The deadline for casting your votes -- and having them count -- is midnight on Thursday, July 22. I'll attempt to have the votes counted and publish the resulting portfolio in my July 30 column. As best as I can in that space, I'll give the details on how each stock made the final Future Fantastic 50 list. And starting with that column, I'll begin tracking the performance of the list through a live portfolio attached to each Jubak's Journal. (If you've got a question on this process, send it as quickly as possible to the Future Fantastic 50 voting site under question No. 2. I'm also accepting suggestions on a name for this portfolio.) So here are my own initial nominees. Twelve from the current 50 Best Stocks in the World: American International Group (AIG) Applied Materials (AMAT) Cisco Systems (CSCO) Coca-Cola (KO) Intel (INTC) MCI WorldCom (WCOM) Microsoft (MSFT) Pfizer (PFE) Sealed Air (SEE) Texas Instruments (TXN) Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) Walt Disney (DIS) In each case, I think the company is on track to extend its already sizable advantages into new markets or to roll over existing competitors to pick up share in the current market. Seven from Jubak's Picks: America Online (AOL) Broadcom (BRCM) Charles Schwab (SCH) EMC Corp. (EMC) Inktomi (INKT) Network Appliance (NTAP) Nokia (NOK) I think all these companies show signs of dominating their respective industries or niches. They'd make the 50 Best Stocks in the World, I believe, if they had longer track records. More⦠And finally, 11 new ideas: Exodus Communications (EXDS) IBM (IBM) JDS Uniphase (UNPH) Oracle (ORCL) Qualcomm (QCOM) RealNetworks (RNWK) RF Micro Devices (RFMD) Sun Microsystems (SUNW) TSI International (TSFW) Vitesse Semiconductor (VTSS) Yahoo! (YHOO) That makes 30 -- just a start, but enough to give you the idea, I trust. I'll be waiting for your votes.