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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: C.K. Houston who wrote (6630)7/16/1999 10:28:00 PM
From: J.L. Turner  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9818
 
Another example of "Impact and Cascading Effect of failure.



eetimes.com

Experts mull potential domino effect of system failures
By Stan Runyon and Craig Matsumoto
EE Times
(07/09/99, 4:06 p.m. EDT)
NEW YORK — Are our systems reliable? Given the pervasive
dependence on electronic systems packed with devices too complex to test down to each
transistor, it's a reasonable, if
provocative, question. Consider the case of the chip that could
have brought down the Internet.
It happened at a New York Internet point-of-presence — a room
stuffed with dozens of network routers. One chip burned out on
one board; an engineer put the fire out without incident. But the smoke blown from cooling
fans in the routers began drifting into the room and curling up toward the smoke alarms.
Because automatic fire-suppression systems cannot use halogen
chemicals, the room was equipped with sprinkler systems. Had the smoke been sufficient
to set off the alarms and trigger the
sprinklers, "it would have taken out every box in the building. It would have taken down the
entire U.S. Internet," said engineer Hugh Duffy at Failure Analysis Associates Inc., which
investigated the mishap.

The intertwining of systems of all sorts calls for consideration of the ripple effect of any
given change or failure, Duffy
warned. "It used to be that if a board failed, O.K., so your TV didn't work anymore," he
said. But increasingly, "you have to walk your way through all the consequences of [your]
decisions." Some experts, including Duffy himself, cite credible evidence
that systems are becoming more reliable relative to their
complexity. While acknowledging that systems-on-chip represent a quantum leap in
design intricacy, they note that fewer blocks are being connected to the outside — and it
is in the
interconnections, they argue, that physical problems most often
surface.
Failures decline
"The 'terrible truth' is that failure rates are going down, not up," Duffy said. "People got
more experienced at making chips, so they are more reliable."

But the world population's increasing reliance on systems — and
the systems' increasing reliance on one another — breeds
vulnerability. "With the rising complexity of global systems such as the Internet and power
grids, the threat and impact of
failures is increasing," warned Donald A. Norman, a consultant and author of numerous
books on design. "We are getting to the point where we will see complex systems
problems the likes of
which we have never seen before, and we lack the scientific
background to understand them."
Indeed, experts say it is becoming increasingly difficult to
gauge the reliability of large-scale systems. The Web, for
example, defies analysis because it is a hybrid of the
traditional circuit-switched telephone network and today's
emerging data, optical and cable nets — a complex system of
interrelated systems.
The Asian flu erased all doubt that global economies are
interlocked. But beyond economic institutions, technology itself has intertwined the
nations of the world in an interdependent web of critical technologies.
So just how fragile is that web? What would it take to "take down" the planet or a
particular portion of its critical
enterprises?
"Failure is a normal part of any human-made system, a part of life," said Norman. "The
human is part of the system. That's not a novel concept, but it's still novel in many
product-development cycles.
"I hear it from many EEs: They are working on something that they say is at such a low
level that it doesn't impact anyone. As long as [their subsystem] works perfectly, their
assumption is OK," Norman said. "But what happens when it fails?"
Norman, a former head of Apple's Advanced Technology Group, sits on the U.S.
Government's Computer Science Telecommunications
Board, which reports on safety and reliability. The board's
object is to address growing concerns over national security,
especially the exposure of electronic systems to failure by
accident or tampering.
"We can put out new computers faster than we can develop security for them,"
"snip"
J.L.T.



To: C.K. Houston who wrote (6630)7/17/1999 1:07:00 PM
From: C.K. Houston  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 9818
 
Cascading effects ...UPDATE

PHONES GO DEAD, TORONTO PUT ON HOLD
Fire in Bell Canada switching station knocks out more than 100,000 lines

Saturday, July 17, 1999

Toronto -- An accidentally dropped tool was the beginning of a chain-reaction disaster that led to a communications meltdown for Canada's biggest city yesterday.

For Toronto, it was a day when the phones didn't ring, credit cards didn't work, and countless plans went out the window, from ordering an airline ticket to closing a real estate deal.

The breakdown, which lasted for most of the business day, had repercussions across the country. Credit-card transactions as far away as Vancouver couldn't be processed, and hundreds of bank machines went out of service.

Toronto found itself having what amounted to an electronic nervous breakdown. Some brokerages couldn't process trades. Customers found themselves unable to call an ambulance, order a taxi, or pay with plastic.

At the Art Gallery of Ontario, extra guards were required for Old Masters paintings after security lines went down. Traffic-light sequencing was knocked out. Travel agents couldn't book flights -- or take calls from customers.

And if you were hoping to get rich quick, there was bad news: Ontario Lottery Corp. terminals were out of service, making it impossible to buy last-minute tickets for last night's unusually high Super 7 draw.

"People are passing up $10-million," said H.W. Chan, manager of the Sun Wa Book Store on Spadina Avenue.

The cause of the problems was a telephone system breakdown that began with an early-morning fire at a Bell Canada switching centre on Simcoe Street downtown. The fire reportedly began after a repairman dropped a
tool.

The tool landed on electrical equipment and the fire spread quickly. At its peak, more than 70 firefighters were on the scene.

What followed was a series of failures that revealed the fragility of the complex communication systems society takes for granted. Although backup batteries were in place to power the switching system, they were designed to last only a few hours.

The backup plan called for the use of diesel emergency generators after the batteries failed, but officials decided that wasn't safe because of the water left by emergency sprinklers.

When the batteries began failing, at around 10.30 a.m., service to approximately 113,000 Bell phone lines was wiped out. Most of those lines were in Toronto's downtown core, the most communications intensive patch in Canada.

The breakdown left Barry Gutteridge, Toronto's commissioner of works and emergency services, shaken about the city's vulnerability. Mr. Gutteridge said there will be an investigation into the accident, with a view to reducing the city's exposure in the future.

Other than a repairman injured at the site of the explosion, Mr. Gutteridge said, the disruption injured no one. Instead, it caused a series of potential crises that were averted only through luck and improvisation.

Mr. Gutteridge, for example, had to co-ordinate the city's emergency fire and ambulance services from the radio room at Fire Hall No. 1 on Adelaide Street when both his office line and cellphone failed. When the backup system conked out at Bell Canada, ambulance services managed to notify Mr. Gutteridge about the magnitude of the problem by E-mail.

Despite the frustrating communications problems, Mr. Gutteridge said, fire and ambulance services responded efficiently. The host of complications included the failure of all telephone lines to the Hospital for Sick Children. A mobile radio unit was sent to the hospital to handle emergency calls.

Bell Canada spokesman Don Hogarth said the 911 emergency service was maintained, although its capacity to handle calls was impaired. Mr. Gutteridge said that if 911 had gone down, mobile radio units would have been sent to affected areas to give members of the public a way of calling in emergencies.

Mr. Hogarth said the area most affected was between College Street to the north, Queen Street to the south, Bathurst Street to the west and Bay Street to the east. The shutdown "zigzagged" to areas outside that core zone as well, he said, depending which phone lines they relied on.

Several investigations are being conducted, including a Labour Ministry investigation into the industrial accident, the fire marshal's investigation, and Bell Canada's investigation, in which Mr. Gutteridge said the city will be involved.

The effects of the outage were widespread, ranging from the institutional to the personal.

Nancy Tarek of Oakville sat in the lobby of Toronto General Hospital for several hours yesterday, pumped full of painkillers, Valium and other sedatives after a medical procedure.

Because of her condition, Ms. Tarek wasn't allowed to go home by herself. But because the phones were out, she couldn't call her family to come pick her up.

"I'm just sitting here half-medicated," she said.

Some Torontonians found virtually all their communication options cut off: Telephones, fax machines, pagers and cellphones routed through the Adelaide Street Bell switching system were all knocked out.

Many securities dealers had problems communicating trades and relied on cellphones until phone lines were back up, but the Toronto Stock Exchange kept operating.

At University Avenue Funds, mutual-fund sales people who couldn't make calls simply went home.

A skeleton staff remained, processing transactions made before the phones crashed.

"I'm trying to fax over trades to the bank and they won't go," accountant Shelina Dossa said.

Almost one-tenth of the cash machines operated by the country's six big banks were out of service for parts of the day, the Canadian Bankers Association said. The Toronto-Dominion Bank was hardest hit.

Hundreds of bank branches lost access to their systems. Many simply shut their doors and referred customers to other areas where phone lines were still working.

The electronic failure created a short-lived bonanza for couriers, who suddenly found themselves in high demand. At the Printing House copy centre on University Avenue, manager Chris Gennings said the cost of a courier had been driven up by the briefly altered market conditions.

"You go out on the street and offer them $10 and they say the going rate's $20," he said. "And if you argue, suddenly the going rate's $25."

The breakdown created a nightmare for retailers, who were unable to authorize debit or credit card transactions. Some, including Loblaws, accommodated customers -- and created a bankers' nightmare -- by taking customers' debit card numbers and phone numbers so banks could call them back to confirm the transaction.

Some businesses decided to do credit card transactions even though they couldn't get them approved.

"I hope and pray a lot of trustworthy people are shopping today," one retail manager said.

Hospitals and other medical services were seriously affected. Phone service was out at the Hospital for Sick Children, Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto Western Hospital and Toronto General Hospital. Hospitals were also affected by the failure of pagers, which they use to track down specialists, surgeons and doctors on call.

Sick Children's poison-information and medical-information lines were shut down. Those two lines usually receive nearly 400 calls a day from all over the city and province.

The failure created chaos for many law offices, which found they were unable to close real-estate deals because the main clearinghouse for title searches was unavailable, putting millions of dollars worth of potential transactions in jeopardy.

Travel agents were particularly hard hit. David Gallie, manager of the Flight Centre on Queen Street West, said the day was a wipeout for
his business.

"I've lost $30,000 worth of sales," he said. "Clients can't order tickets. I can't call the airlines, and I can't book a seat. And I can't sell a ticket because the credit-card authorization system is down."

For Toronto police, the failure meant the loss of phone and computer systems, although their radios and most cellphones still worked.

Constable Don Petrie, who works in the Eaton Centre, said the phone failure gave police "a bit of a taste" of what could happen if the millennium bug wipes out computer systems on January 1.

"It's a bucket of cold water," he said. "It shakes you back to what it was like when we didn't have these services."
globeandmail.ca
=====================================================

"we should also obviously expect that we will have a large number, possibly, of what would be manageable failures taken one at a time, which will overwhelm the normal emergency response processes when they happen all at once." ...

"we've asked FEMA to... make clear to the state and local emergency managers ... that those local governments should not assume that the federal government and FEMA will be able to come to their assistance no matter what their problem is, because we may have so many problems in localities across the country that we can't be everywhere at once. "

John Koskinen, Chair - President's Council on Y2K Conversion
Transcript, APEC Summit, May 4, 1999
United States Information Agency
pdq2.usia.gov@pdqtest1.env?CQ_SESSION_KEY=YLWXNVIGNNZM&CQ_QUERY_HANDLE=123990&CQ_CUR_DOCUMENT=1&CQ_PDQ_DOCUMENT_VIEW=1&CQSUBMIT=View&CQRETURN=&CQPAGE=1
=====================================================

CBS July 15, 1999
CITIES NOT READY FOR Y2K
- Only 2% of 21 Biggest U.S. Cities are Prepared
- 9 States say they're less than 70% ready
- Computer glitches could disrupt city operations


The nine states that reported having completed work on less than 70% of their most important systems are New Hampshire, Ohio, Alabama, Louisiana, Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico, California and Hawaii ...

"Completing Y2K activities in the last months of the year increases the risk that key services will not be Y2K-ready in time for 2000 because there will not be enought time to deal with unanticipated complications,' Willemssen said ...

Sen. Robert Bennett, a Utah Republican who heads the special Y2K committee, said he feared that many state and local governments were "leaving little room for testing, contingency planning and unexpected problems."

"Only very efficient executive-level management and contingency planning can sustain us through the upcoming historic date change."
Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn.
cbs.com

=====================================================
WASHINGTON - Dozens of towns and cities across Texas were faulted
at a Senate hearing Thursday for ignoring inquiries about their readiness for year 2000 computer problems.

One hundred of the state's municipalities were contacted by staffers with the Senate's special committee on the year 2000 problem, but only 25 responded.

"What are you going to do about people who insist on remaining asleep?" asked Sen. Robert Byrd, D-W.Va. "What are they going to do in the face of a dire emergency - sleep through it?" ...

Of the 25 Texas municipalities responding to the Senate survey, two-thirds said their emergency services were ready for the year 2000. Fewer than half said they have a written contingency plan in case of failures, and hardly any reported independent verification of repaired equipment.
dallasnews.com

Cheryl
167 Days until 2000




To: C.K. Houston who wrote (6630)7/17/1999 1:15:00 PM
From: John Mansfield  Respond to of 9818
 
e-gold.com

'Y2K Facts of Life

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) No one can prove in advance how bad actual Y2K-related computer system failures will be. They may turn out to be relatively minor. They may be catastrophic, extensively affecting vital infrastructure on a prolonged basis.
2) If there is a functioning money economy, including a payments system which remains operational, all other problems can be dealt with as they arise. Entrepreneurs, seeking profits, will devise and implement solutions. The market process works, but requires money. Only money can encapsulate value, quantify it, and convey it through time. Only a payments system can efficiently convey money through space, from payer to payee.
3) If money itself ‘breaks', for more than a brief interval, no preparation can be sufficient for the primitive horrors that await. A complex society entails a high degree of specialization. Barter, or the use of hand-to-hand money, can not sustain large populations at an acceptable standard of living. If you work in an office or manufacturing plant, there is no barter item your employer can give you which you can exchange for rent, gasoline, law enforcement, dental services, electricity and tap water. You may even have a lot of junk silver on hand, but it will not suffice for the unimaginably complex fabric of exchanges required to convert agricultural products, produced elsewhere, into groceries, available to you. You wouldn't recognize, and most would not survive, a society lacking a payments system.

The key element is the monetary/payments system. There are currently two competing payments systems deployed on a worldwide basis.

One is embodied in the banking system and related financial institutions. Ignoring direct risks of computer system failures, two systemic risks must be considered:
1) If many people attempt to withdraw cash from the banking system, it will fail. It is estimated that if 20% of households were to attempt to withdraw cash equal to one month's worth of after-tax income, that the banking system would collapse beyond remedy.
2) Tax systems, which comprise the only substance of “full faith and credit” , rank among the most vulnerable systems, riddled with complex legacy hardware and software.

The other is e-gold™.