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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (20294)	7/16/1999 6:05:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

at the same time there are undercurrents of growing instability in the world (Taiwan/China, Argentina). it may be time for some explosive counter trend moves soon. regards, hb

To: bobby beara who wrote (20294)	7/17/1999 12:10:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi BB; It's a gamble , when anyone calls a top there is a degree of luck , & they are harder to call than bottoms. We hear the old "don't catch a falling knife" but trying to short a top is every bit as hard then some. ------------- This week coming up will have some hoops the market needs to jump, it's to be the biggest IPO week this year, 22 of them that's money that won't show in the index. The bond market is nervous too and a lot of new bond issues are coming to market. ------------- What's odd is the investment bankers , the underwriters and the ones you would think would be cleaning up in this market have for the most part gone no where, over half of them are still below their highs of over a year ago. Goldman is trading below it's IPO , 50 % of the IPOs in the last three months are below the close of their 1st days trading price. The internet was leading the market, but take today all the major nuts were down. Msft carried the NDX higher with it's 5%+ surge however it's carries the most weight in the NDX too. I watch what I call the 5 kings in the NDX , MSFT, INTC, CSCO , WCOM, & DELL, along with the sentiment stocks Yhoo, AMZN , CMGI, & ATHM, well only MSFT & WCOM were up today and MSFT carried the index, could her surge have been the news of the tracking stock or the fact she didn't get hammered by the Connecticut court, that's what the news pudits say. Me I think it was option related or news of good earnings has leaked out, well if it was the earnings leak or any of the others , then it's priced in, and we could see some selling going into actual earnings , been some of that lately with other stocks too. ------------ What does impress me on the bullish side is GE also making a new high, but then she did that last July too, and the dollar slipped today, shades of last July also. What I didn't see yet is the market makers taking up large short positions, maybe they do that Monday ? Jim