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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (37248)	7/17/1999 12:32:00 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116763

Ron, I've followed Dr. Yardeni very closely over the years and I am basically in agreement with his analysis, with the exception of his bearish view concerning Crude Oil. If his analysis becomes Reality, it has extremely bullish implications for Gold: 1) A long bond yield of 4.5% this year and 3% in the year 2000 makes Gold very attractive as a CURRENCY and alternative investment. 2) In an extremely deflationary economy where the U.S. is in a major recession( to say the least), the dollar will fall substantially. I envision an International Currency Crisis; and with the Fed Radically easing the Discount and Fed Funds Rate, your lighting one of the biggest fires and playing the sweetest music for the XAU. Greenspam would have to lower rates to at least 3%. The last time Greenspam did that in 1993, Gold rose to $424. 3) Where I disagree with Yardeni is over his bearish stance on Crude Oil. The API reports have been very bullish lately. I also see most of the large oil well heads at severe risk due to embedded chip problems. At best, I see $40 oil and rationing of crude oil as we had in the 1970's. That gives us STAGFLATION, the best possible environment for GOLD. In this environment, Gold would challenge its old high at the $850 level and probably surpass it on the way to $1,000 an ounce. 4) What makes Yardeni interesting is that he has an excellent track record: Basically, his analysis has been on the money over the last 15 Years. Gold looks like a screaming buy here. I won't attempt to pick a bottom here; but the risk/reward ratio is drastically slanted to the upside. There have been rare similar manias in past history; in all cases, those who kept their heads while everyone else was losing theirs won BIG in the end by buying Gold and select Gold Mining Shares.

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (37248)	7/17/1999 9:03:00 AM
From: Rarebird	Respond to of 116763

What Correlation Do Gold Sales/Auctions Have to the Price Of Gold? JOHN BOLLINGER'S CAPITAL GROWTH LETTER 7/16/99 Capital Growth Topics # 284: Gold Chris Bradbrook of Yorkton Securities just published a research piece on the first British gold auction. In it he conducted a historical look at all central bank (broadly defined) gold auctions over the last 30 years. His conclusion is that official gold sales/auctions have little correlation to the gold price. It turns out that there have been gold auctions in times of rising prices, in times of falling prices and during times when the gold price wasn't trending at all. The gold auctions themselves seem to have little relationship to the preceding or subsequent gold price. That the linkage should be absent is no doubt confounding. To add to the confusion, Bradbrook points out that central banks themselves were often buyers in the auctions. So to some extent the auctions have been a mechanism to redistribute gold holdings amongst official repositories. The real question investors have to face is whether such auctions constitute a supply event or not. The empirical evidence suggests not, yet investors and analysts are treating the current series of auctions as a supply event. This suggests in turn that the current low gold price is real, not an artifact of the auctions. If that is true, the implications are profound as gold is a very useful indicator of the economic and monetary environment--an indicator that has been quite accurate in recent years. Many analysts are pooh-poohing the decline in gold; we think they do so at their peril. Gold's message regarding non-inflationary growth and the risk of deflation instead of inflation should not be ignored. Think that's wrong? Look at today's European Central Bank pronouncement of a move to a tightening bias in the teeth of sub-par European economic performance Will higher rates shore up the collapsing euro? Perhaps, but they also undermine economic growth in the EU. Analysts should not ignore the market's song. Facts count, not opinion. decisionpoint.com