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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dfloydr who wrote (48127)	7/17/1999 2:11:00 AM
From: double-plus-good	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

DFR, my 2 cents FWIW -- it appears the analysts are in some disagreement about earnings projections, with a number of brokerages scaling back estimates. my impression is that CAM management usually keeps the analyst community up to speed and guides the numbers fairly well. so i wouldn't be expecting any upside surprises. i believe the impression was a little more bullish a few weeks back and so what you are seeing in the chart is some moderation of the analyst view -- basically buy on dips but don't chase it. its interesting to compare CAM and SII (which is also having its earnings estimates trimmed) to NE, FLC, CLB and PGO. mo-mo's flagging but laggards are flying. my guesses (spin if you like) -- -- NE estimates are being ratcheted up due to some continued good contract rates in the North Sea and non GOM areas. that explains NE's bullish behavior lately. -- the "potential" in FLC is being given greater credence by the analysts who are getting their clients into it. the possibility of some kind of merger probably plays in there as well. -- people have been fighting each other to get into PGO all week -- what a change a week makes. PGO is becoming much more involved with actual production vs. seismic as their floating platforms come on line in the North Sea. analysts and institutions giving it the gun. all the sellers emptied out at 15. nice ride. Slider's right on this one for sure -- they are a dynamite outfit -- and i'm feeling a little stupid for clearing my plate between 21-22. I'm praying that it will come back as i don't want to be without it going out longterm. CLB, former highflyer regaining some luster recently, as well. the action this week in OLOG was pretty inspiring and a little overdue. if the gulf is going back to work -- the choppers will fly. their balance sheet is pretty nice. OMNI should tag along on that move -- i think the fact that EGEO is one of their biggest customers is putting a drag on the stock price. a good one to pick up on weakness. you point out an interesting development, however, but one that is a little overdue. the real mo-mo stocks like VTS, CAM and SII are flagging while some of the deepwater, seismic, and services are legging up. (i never really fathomed the logic in SII's rapid rise to 45+.) on the one hand the rally is broadening while on the other the leaders are showing weakness. i am trading by my gut feeling that this signals an approaching consolidation, so i guess i am in agreement with gary and with slider that patience is the better strategy over and against exuberance. i cleared out my last cam at 41, all my pgo and at least half positions in most others (except for fgi/hlx). i guess i am riding the fence -- still appreciably invested in the osx with concetrations in deepwater and seismic but weighted heavily in the enp stocks with hopes of using profits there to rebuy my osx faves. fwiw, i'm "camping" in the enp's, having only traded out of a little rrc and oei. CAM will go-go again on the next leg, but the market seems to be saying get it as cheaply as you can. my target is 32-34. VRC looks to be a good candidate for a pop. my guesss is it should pop before an osx correction. going on the record for predicting the market is hazardous, but fun nonetheless. i see a pop in the next week to test previous resistance with some of the "osx dogs" providing most of the pizazz. VRC should hit 12+ and FLC should test recent highs. other laggards should do nicely. then we get to the serious business of consolidation which is overdue and lets us get back in on the cheap. hoping i don't have to change my handle to eggonmyface -- dpg (slightly OT -- considering that there is just about as much chatter on this STRICTLY DRILLING board concerning exploration and production companies it might be a worthwhile idea to consider a dual party structure to celebrate what we all hope will be our even mightier returns. the idea of our "camping" in these issues suggests something a little more outdoorsy than the ideas which have been suggested for the drilling party. doin' some fishin' and swimmin' and such if you get my drift. Triton does some production in my neck of the woods -- Songkla in Thailand. The beaches are sweet and the seafood divine. There's a mighty fine island nearby that's got hardly any folks -- used to be a penal colony in the old days. Just thought i'd throw that one out there.)

To: dfloydr who wrote (48127)	7/17/1999 11:32:00 AM
From: Wowzer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Floyd CAM I trade CAM quite a bit for the exactly the same reasons you mention. CAM tends to fluctuate 1 to 2 points daily for no apparent reason. Buying CAM in the low 30's and selling in the high 30's has worked out very well. IF CAM does go against me I feel I own a quality company so I will hold and if it takes off I still own a core position for the ride. Lately 37's seems to be the top with 35's being the bottom of its channel. And that is exactly how I have been trading it at least until earnings. It's funny how the OSX works, for awhile RIG was the dog of the OSX now it is the star. Now it seems CAM is the dog...our day will come.... Rory