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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alex who wrote (37259)	7/17/1999 7:56:00 AM
From: John Mansfield	Respond to of 116764

'ON THE WEB: When gold may make a lot of cents The eGold payment mechanism based on deposits of precious metal is cheap, efficient and easy to manage says Tim Jackson ft.com

To: Alex who wrote (37259)	7/17/1999 9:11:00 AM
From: Rarebird	Respond to of 116764

Long Term Market OUTLOOK: Decision Point Alert By Carl Swenlin July 17, 1999 *********************** LONG-TERM OUTLOOK: Since we continue to rank in the Timer Digest Top 10 Long- Term Timers list (#4 in the 7/12/99 issue), I will include comments regarding my long-term view of the market. With the P/E for the S&P 500 at about 37, I consider the market to be in a bubble and extremely dangerous for the long term. Our mechanical LT Model remains on a BUY and it will take a down move of about 12% to switch it to a SELL, but be alert -- the next intermediate-term top could be the top of tops. My current upside target for the S&P is about 1550, at which point the P/E (assuming no significant change in earnings) will be over 40. As far as I know, the last time the P/E was that high was in 1929. I have received some mail challenging my negative interpretation of the extremely high P/E for the S&P 500 Index, one view being that people are merely "discounting" earnings ahead by several years. If we strip away the euphemistic garnish of that statement, what it means is that people are paying a lot more for stocks than they are actually worth by any rational measure of value, in the HOPE that the stocks will eventually be worth as much as they originally paid for them. Now I ask you, when is that ever a good idea? We will continue to exploit the market's upward trend, but we will always maintain a keen awareness of the fact that there is nothing but smoke holding this beast in the air. There is money to be made, but it is not in the area of value investing. decisionpoint.com