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Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ram Seetharaman who wrote (19320)	7/17/1999 12:46:00 PM
From: patrick tang	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

Yesterday somebody bought enough to take the price up ~$1 to over $50 at end of trading day before weekend and a few days before earnings. I intend to trust his 'judgement' - bet you he's much more connected than anyone of us here on this board. I'll be really surprised we'll get a sell after earnings, at least not at this level. Willing to bet we'll see $55 sometimes next week. If it drops Monday, I intend to follow this guy's trade. patrick

To: Ram Seetharaman who wrote (19320)	7/18/1999 9:21:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

With the whole Taiwan-China thing I revisited fabless companies' demand numbers for 1999 (if the Taiwan thing gets serious we have yet another reason why LSI is in better shape than the smaller competitors. BTW note STM and IBM like LSI have their own fabs. It is only the smaller companies who have to go fabless as they have no choice!): The fabless companies expect 43% wafer growth in 1999. As has been the case in the past these are likely way too optimistic. I suspect the fabless companies give wildly optimistic projections (aka BS) to ensure that their foundry partners don't scale back cap ex too much since if this were to happen the fabless companies might not have any chips to sell. With 20/20 hindsight, I think the foundries cut back cap exp spending too much in 1998 - but that was to be expected. Their loss - others' gain... The following excerpt shows fabless companies' expectations. As well it shows sub 0.25 demand next year (presumably greater than 100% growth YOY for sub 0.25 and likely much much higher for 0.18 (smaller base)): ---- "The participants indicate an expectation of 43 percent growth in wafer requirements in 1999 over actual 1998 wafer purchases. Of this 43 percent growth, 27 percent will occur in the first and second quarter. This point was highlighted by the FSA because past Surveys indicate that the forecast for the first six months of the Survey are highly accurate (see table). In 1999, 60 percent of wafer requirements for fabless companies will be at 0.35-micron or less. By 2000, 39 percent of total wafer demand will be for 0.25-micron or less, growing from 19 percent in 1999 from a mere two percent in 1998."