To: JEB who wrote (85105 ) 7/17/1999 4:14:00 PM From: QuietWon Respond to of 119973
JEB, if you go back over the past 2 months (esp past 2 weeks) on FVCX time & sales, you'll see the larger size trades are at the ask ie. BUYS. There appears to be some day-trades going on the past day or two (using & assuming 1,000 share trades as the proxy day trade size), BUT I haven't seen a preponderance of large size sells. So, I'd say the larger size trades are being made by those holding on for a larger gain (vs a daytrade 1/4 or 1/2 pt, say). With a float of only 3 million, I'd say the actual float is likely to be anywhere from 250,000 to 750,000 smaller ie. 2.25 to 2.75 million due to those holding for a much larger gain. The float could be smaller still, for those in before April and still holding. That's the supply side. As for the demand side, we see FVCX in a sales agreement with PLCM (the global multimedia solution provider). So what, no big deal one might say. But, considering that ACUC just did its own 1,000th installation of PLCM's solution, that sure looks good for FVCX. Consider: (a) other vendors installing Polycom solutions (b) Polycom selling its own products (c) ACUC and other vendors marketing solutions involving installation of Polycom solutions In other words, FVCX just added MORE than just Polycom's sales force , possibly 2x or more the Polycom sales force. The market for video over the net is a reality NOW and will grow from here. What if Lucent starts to assertively or aggressively get going ? It could happen since (a) their contribution to sales wasn;t that great (b) the commercial during the baseball all-star game sure shows Lucent seeming to be getting into video imo, Demand easily > Supply and price will rise.