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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (6845)	7/17/1999 5:37:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

MGJ: Re: "Why is he still advocating a 100% fully invested position?" I believe he means one should be fully invested according to one's asset allocation split between bonds and stocks. And he has advised people to look at their asset allocation. But IMO one's asset allocation should be revised currently in accordance with what the stock market is offering -- a very unattractive risk/reward proposition. So if one was an aggressive young lad and 100% in stocks, he should consider going 80%/20% or 70%/30%. Re: "Why is Bob playing for the last dime when a miscalculation may cream us all?" Sounds like you think we are on the edge of a cliff right here ready to go down into a bear market. I am not sure what you mean here.

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (6845)	7/17/1999 6:01:00 PM
From: Allan Harris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Why is Bob playing for the last dime when a miscalculation may cream us all? Bob doesn't control your assets, you do. Your question should be directed inward. A

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (6845)	7/17/1999 6:32:00 PM
From: lifeisgood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Bob is hedging and, in the event of a significant (and unpredicted pullback), he can repeat ad nauseum how he stated back in July how overpriced the market was and how all his listeners should have known about the pullback as he was predicting it all along... He did this last Autumn too when he couldn't bring himself to admit he blew the call. If you recall, after the market began sliding, he predicted only a minor correction though it turned out to be ~20% pullback. Afterwards, he claimed repeatedly that he knew all along it was coming and that prudent listeners should have known as well. My take: Bob is nervous recommending a fully invested position but is even more afraid (as he was last Autumn) of predicting a major pullback. So he hedges. He's covered either way and can say "I told you so" no matter what happens. Those who have listened to Bob for any length of time should know that he does that. That's why he has never predicted a bear market and never will until after the fact (just as he refused to call an "intermediate correction" until after it already transpired last year). JMO. Always make your own decisions. Always. best... LIG

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (6845)	7/17/1999 6:37:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

MrGreenJeans re:why is Bob playing for the last dime when a miscalculation may cream us all? I guess you might and many have asked a similar question for hundreds or thousands of points and Bob has remained fully invested since his model has remained bullish. Since he has confidence that his model will successfully call a bear so he's staying with it until the bear call comes. Also as Bob has indicated the biggest mistake people make historically is being out of a bull market and I believe a bull in its death throes can go pretty high pretty fast until the top is reached. Personally while my fairly big hedge I put on at new highs a few weeks ago is starting to get expensive I'm don't feel compelled to sell it off at this point. I'm still been participating especially with the big semi capex moving to highs and some good funds but I'm worried if NVLS earnings Justa mentioned, good or bad might start a little profit taking party in the sector. At this point I would welcome conditions leading to a bear market call as long as he's right of course Marc

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (6845)	7/17/1999 11:52:00 PM
From: Gary D	Respond to of 15132

MGJ: "Why is Bob playing for the last dime when a miscalculation may cream us all?" Bob's visibility must be such that he feels the probability of a miscalculation you refer to is acceptably low. Several weeks ago, Bob stopped saying that there was little visibility in the market. And last weekend Bob made a statement similar to 'there is no chance of a bear market at this time'. Even though the market is priced to total perfection, if visibility is such that any possibility of a panic is at least several weeks away, then an invested position can be justified. And if the market top is not followed immediately by a panic, then the time window for a good sell signal may be fairly broad. JMO.

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (6845)	7/18/1999 10:08:00 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 15132

re: Why is Bob playing for the last dime when a miscalculation may cream us all? Wow, you ask a good question. The 5 replies so far are excellent too. I wouldn't try to speak for Bob so only he can say. What I advocate is a variable asset allocation due to risk/reward. I was at 95% equities last fall (one regular was at 105% last fall using margin) and I am TRYING to stay below 80% now but my individual stocks keep running higher and the tax man is smiling greedily as I contemplate taking even more profits. Part of having a large radio and newsletter following is appearing to always be right so Bob does what he can to preserve this image. Right or wrong, it sure works for making him tons of money and a huge following. I've listened to other radio show hosts and some of their claims are much more outrageous. I think Justa would say "Its show business, baby!" Funny thing overall. We KNOW that earnings are going to be good and BB has a low ball estimate for these. We also KNOW that inflation is going to be low (if you have any clue of the internet's potential and the hords of people overseas that can build stuff very cheaply compared to doing in here or in Japan or Germany).... Add those near known facts to a timing model that watches things like liquidity and sentiment and you should feel fairly confident that the bull can continue... just don't expect double digit returns to last forever! regards Kirk out