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Strategies & Market Trends : TA-Quotes Plus -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: INVESTOR who wrote (9814)	7/24/1999 3:47:00 PM
From: Nine_USA	Respond to of 11149

Investor, My 'formula' involves about 60 variables. About 40 are fundamental and the rest are functions of price or volume. While the best performers were 3 Internet stocks (AOL YHOO XCIT), my results still FAR exceed the last 17 months for the SP500 with ALL internet stocks excluded, and as well when I relax my stock selection threshold in order to obtain a larger number of stocks. You are correct in supposing I pay virtually no heed to EPS for two reasons: 1. Earnings are easily manipulated. 2. Extremely high returns are found with development stage companies approaching profitability, or making persuasive cases for future surging growth.

To: INVESTOR who wrote (9814)	7/24/1999 6:15:00 PM
From: Nine_USA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11149

<Looks like you got lucky since many if not most of your picks are internet plays (ie yhoo, aol, etc)> I show in Table 1. the top 30 stocks (including Internet stocks) which were ranked highest on July 22, 1998, held for 1 year from close July 23, 1998, and sold at close on July 23. The column labelled 12mn shows the 12 months investment return for each stock. The 1 year return for these 30 stocks was 81.2% versus 18.9% for the SP500. In order to show that I did NOT get lucky, I show in Table 2. the top 30 NON-INTERNET stocks which were ranked highest on July 22, 1998, held for 1 year from close July 23, 1998, and sold at close on July 23. The column labelled 12mn shows the 12 months investment return for each stock. The 1 year return for these 30 stocks was still 49.3% versus 18.9% for the SP500. The 49.3% return is 30.4% higher than that for the SP500, a significant difference. Table 3. shows that the 1 year return for the top ranked 10 NON-INTERNET stocks also do substantially higher (81.3%) than the 18.9% SP500 return. Run 07/24/99 5:36:08 PM ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Data as of close 19980722 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 1. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tik SIC close FutPr %shrt Val 12mn 9m% 6m% 3m% 2Mn% 1Mn% 10D% %Day %/Hi %/Lo %Mgn r50 r200 Q Qa P/E DELL 3571 110.88 41.00 6.8 156 55.7 44.0 -1.2 -4.7 13.5 7.0 -4.2 -4.4 5 12 94 308 6.8 120 173 97 98 EMC 3572 50.69 61.75 3.5 141 139.2 100.8 25.4 11.3 20.8 12.3 4.3 -3.2 2 5 97 221 17.8 113 140 93 89 AOL 7370 129.56 107.94 11.2 140 244.0 303.5 53.7 -26.6 -9.7 -3.4 -15.8 -4.8 5 15 95 404 2.9 133 201 99 97 YHOO 7375 189.00 145.75 83.0 139 207.9 143.4 1.9 -22.3 5.7 -6.3 -8.9 -3.7 7 13 95 597 na 135 213 99 99 LU 3661 102.12 67.12 0.9 136 41.0 69.9 29.9 9.9 18.8 2.2 -6.7 -0.1 2 13 100 280 1.6 131 179 97 91 GTW 3571 63.19 73.00 19.9 132 24.3 55.3 16.8 5.0 18.8 13.0 8.0 -5.2 1 12 94 252 1.7 123 152 87 83 CSCO 3576 98.94 62.94 1.7 128 90.5 118.5 22.4 7.2 15.1 1.7 -6.1 -4.1 2 11 96 213 12.7 117 148 93 90 MSPG 7373 126.62 44.12 9.0 128 77.7 153.4 -2.9 -18.5 20.5 12.2 -13.7 8.5 6 14 100 956 na 168 249 99 97 WMT 5331 68.00 44.94 2.6 128 41.5 38.4 9.6 -11.8 5.0 1.3 -6.3 -1.2 1 7 99 211 3.0 115 144 93 87 EQ 6311 80.06 65.00 1.5 127 -15.4 46.9 8.1 -6.1 -4.1 -4.9 -6.1 -2.3 2 9 96 221 7.3 111 142 95 87 AAPL 3571 35.62 53.31 12.6 126 52.6 43.6 37.6 36.0 27.1 22.0 -4.2 -1.7 0 7 95 275 0.2 121 154 95 74 CMGI 7331 85.88 97.19 19.4 126 370.9 699.3 105.4 -24.9 -7.9 -1.8 -19.7 3.8 3 12 1001194 na 154 284 99 90 QLGC 3674 55.31 151.12 2.1 126 410.2 260.8 116.7 132.5 40.7 15.3 11.1 0.6 7 10 100 222 17.2 136 150 96 79 AEG 6311 110.19 75.69 0.1 125 -26.3 -11.9 -31.8 -13.5 -12.7 -6.6 3.1 2.3 1 15 100 322 7.3 133 187 98 87 PVN 6153 82.00 100.19 2.4 124 83.4 96.0 11.8 -23.3 0.5 11.9 -1.9 -0.3 3 7 99 242 33.2 115 149 95 77 COF 6141 118.75 46.50 2.0 123 20.4 49.3 8.4 -15.1 -4.5 -9.7 -16.0 -3.2 7 11 92 354 25.4 108 158 97 85 LCOS 7375 73.12 94.94 13.5 123 159.3 199.0 -13.8 0.5 -2.9 1.5 -11.4 6.7 10 10 73 504 na 115 157 99 96 CTXS 7372 68.12 50.69 4.1 122 51.0 56.1 16.2 31.0 10.5 -8.0 -15.3 -7.6 5 8 92 244 21.5 111 132 84 97 ATI 4812 64.88 8.06 1.5 121 - - - - - - - 3.0 4 9 100 235 14.6 120 141 94 83 CVC 4841 87.12 70.00 22.9 121 68.7 58.2 11.3 -10.3 -15.9 -4.7 -6.4 0.7 4 11 97 350 2.9 130 166 97 96 PFE 2834 114.12 34.75 0.4 119 -6.5 6.4 -9.9 -17.9 -1.9 5.6 -6.1 -3.2 7 9 96 218 18.2 103 127 87 89 XCIT 7375 48.75 18.44 43.2 119 - - - - - - - 2.9 6 10 91 675 na 134 200 99 99 RCL 4481 86.19 45.75 4.3 118 10.4 79.4 23.6 20.0 13.7 5.5 3.1 -1.3 1 9 99 248 10.1 115 145 95 87 VIA 7841 65.38 43.88 7.8 118 34.8 42.4 7.5 -5.0 8.5 9.2 -4.0 0.9 2 7 100 233 na 113 142 95 78 BBY 5731 47.44 69.75 6.9 117 177.7 239.3 76.0 36.8 58.1 10.2 -8.2 -4.6 2 10 92 748 1.3 127 173 99 87 KSU 4011 57.00 57.25 4.5 115 4.8 63.3 30.3 -6.6 -1.3 -2.1 -8.0 0.7 1 7 100 254 na 121 149 97 91 LXK 3577 67.44 61.38 0.8 115 84.9 98.8 23.7 3.2 -10.2 -9.1 -5.5 -1.9 3 9 97 231 6.3 113 151 94 88 DH 5331 52.25 66.06 1.5 114 34.7 45.4 10.2 -5.5 7.3 2.3 -8.8 -0.7 5 5 99 200 2.9 107 131 91 88 MCIC 4813 68.00 13.69 0.7 114 - - - - - - - -2.2 0 9 98 249 na 121 143 94 73 CNWK 7375 62.12 1.16 60.4 113 - - - - - - - -11.6 9 8 88 311 na 126 180 97 94 Cumulative Returns filter ____VALK Stocks All Eval on 19980722 Bought at next day close Sell on 19990723 long # 30 81.2 103.3 19.6 2.7 7.1 2.6 -5.1 short# 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 net # 30 81.2 103.3 19.6 2.7 7.1 2.6 -5.1 SPY 18.9 27.3 10.8 -0.0 3.5 2.1 -3.4 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 2. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tik SIC close FutPr %shrt Val 12mn 9m% 6m% 3m% 2Mn% 1Mn% 10D% %Day %/Hi %/Lo %Mgn r50 r200 Q Qa P/E DELL 3571 110.88 41.00 6.8 156 55.7 44.0 -1.2 -4.7 13.5 7.0 -4.2 -4.4 5 12 94 308 6.8 120 173 97 98 EMC 3572 50.69 61.75 3.5 141 139.2 100.8 25.4 11.3 20.8 12.3 4.3 -3.2 2 5 97 221 17.8 113 140 93 89 LU 3661 102.12 67.12 0.9 136 41.0 69.9 29.9 9.9 18.8 2.2 -6.7 -0.1 2 13 100 280 1.6 131 179 97 91 GTW 3571 63.19 73.00 19.9 132 24.3 55.3 16.8 5.0 18.8 13.0 8.0 -5.2 1 12 94 252 1.7 123 152 87 83 CSCO 3576 98.94 62.94 1.7 128 90.5 118.5 22.4 7.2 15.1 1.7 -6.1 -4.1 2 11 96 213 12.7 117 148 93 90 WMT 5331 68.00 44.94 2.6 128 41.5 38.4 9.6 -11.8 5.0 1.3 -6.3 -1.2 1 7 99 211 3.0 115 144 93 87 EQ 6311 80.06 65.00 1.5 127 -15.4 46.9 8.1 -6.1 -4.1 -4.9 -6.1 -2.3 2 9 96 221 7.3 111 142 95 87 AAPL 3571 35.62 53.31 12.6 126 52.6 43.6 37.6 36.0 27.1 22.0 -4.2 -1.7 0 7 95 275 0.2 121 154 95 74 QLGC 3674 55.31 151.12 2.1 126 410.2 260.8 116.7 132.5 40.7 15.3 11.1 0.6 7 10 100 222 17.2 136 150 96 79 AEG 6311 110.19 75.69 0.1 125 -26.3 -11.9 -31.8 -13.5 -12.7 -6.6 3.1 2.3 1 15 100 322 7.3 133 187 98 87 PVN 6153 82.00 100.19 2.4 124 83.4 96.0 11.8 -23.3 0.5 11.9 -1.9 -0.3 3 7 99 242 33.2 115 149 95 77 COF 6141 118.75 46.50 2.0 123 20.4 49.3 8.4 -15.1 -4.5 -9.7 -16.0 -3.2 7 11 92 354 25.4 108 158 97 85 CTXS 7372 68.12 50.69 4.1 122 51.0 56.1 16.2 31.0 10.5 -8.0 -15.3 -7.6 5 8 92 244 21.5 111 132 84 97 ATI 4812 64.88 8.06 1.5 121 - - - - - - - 3.0 4 9 100 235 14.6 120 141 94 83 CVC 4841 87.12 70.00 22.9 121 68.7 58.2 11.3 -10.3 -15.9 -4.7 -6.4 0.7 4 11 97 350 2.9 130 166 97 96 PFE 2834 114.12 34.75 0.4 119 -6.5 6.4 -9.9 -17.9 -1.9 5.6 -6.1 -3.2 7 9 96 218 18.2 103 127 87 89 RCL 4481 86.19 45.75 4.3 118 10.4 79.4 23.6 20.0 13.7 5.5 3.1 -1.3 1 9 99 248 10.1 115 145 95 87 VIA 7841 65.38 43.88 7.8 118 34.8 42.4 7.5 -5.0 8.5 9.2 -4.0 0.9 2 7 100 233 na 113 142 95 78 BBY 5731 47.44 69.75 6.9 117 177.7 239.3 76.0 36.8 58.1 10.2 -8.2 -4.6 2 10 92 748 1.3 127 173 99 87 KSU 4011 57.00 57.25 4.5 115 4.8 63.3 30.3 -6.6 -1.3 -2.1 -8.0 0.7 1 7 100 254 na 121 149 97 91 LXK 3577 67.44 61.38 0.8 115 84.9 98.8 23.7 3.2 -10.2 -9.1 -5.5 -1.9 3 9 97 231 6.3 113 151 94 88 DH 5331 52.25 66.06 1.5 114 34.7 45.4 10.2 -5.5 7.3 2.3 -8.8 -0.7 5 5 99 200 2.9 107 131 91 88 MCIC 4813 68.00 13.69 0.7 114 - - - - - - - -2.2 0 9 98 249 na 121 143 94 73 MWD 6211 94.62 93.50 1.8 113 2.1 68.7 15.0 -11.0 3.0 0.3 -9.7 -1.2 4 10 98 207 9.8 114 138 93 87 SGP 2834 99.75 50.50 0.3 113 3.9 0.1 -3.2 -5.9 10.1 6.9 -3.6 -3.1 3 7 95 212 21.1 109 133 93 87 CCSC 3661 54.56 1.06 1.0 112 - - - - - - - 0.6 3 8 99 274 19.6 116 144 93 84 CCU 4832 120.00 70.88 3.4 112 24.3 58.9 20.0 0.5 3.9 8.1 -0.8 -2.8 2 15 97 205 8.9 115 138 92 88 COST 5331 64.50 77.06 3.2 112 20.9 36.7 7.6 -11.5 -0.9 4.0 -10.3 -0.6 1 3 99 202 1.8 108 130 91 84 TJX 5651 27.44 32.25 3.2 112 24.0 46.2 10.5 -5.8 12.2 3.0 -4.3 -3.5 1 3 96 204 4.3 110 136 92 89 CTL 4813 51.50 41.88 0.7 110 24.7 25.8 -3.5 -6.1 4.5 6.0 6.0 0.4 1 4 100 217 25.9 109 134 93 82 Cumulative Returns filter ____VALK Stocks All Eval on 19980722 Bought at next day close Sell on 19990723 long # 30 49.3 61.2 16.3 4.4 8.0 3.4 -3.6 short# 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 net # 30 49.3 61.2 16.3 4.4 8.0 3.4 -3.6 SPY 18.9 27.3 10.8 -0.0 3.5 2.1 -3.4 Run 07/24/99 6:03:56 PM ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Data as of close 19980722 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 3. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tik SIC close FutPr %shrt Val 12mn 9m% 6m% 3m% 2Mn% 1Mn% 10D% %Day %/Hi %/Lo %Mgn r50 r200 Q Qa P/E DELL 3571 110.88 41.00 6.8 156 55.7 44.0 -1.2 -4.7 13.5 7.0 -4.2 -4.4 5 12 94 308 6.8 120 173 97 98 EMC 3572 50.69 61.75 3.5 141 139.2 100.8 25.4 11.3 20.8 12.3 4.3 -3.2 2 5 97 221 17.8 113 140 93 89 LU 3661 102.12 67.12 0.9 136 41.0 69.9 29.9 9.9 18.8 2.2 -6.7 -0.1 2 13 100 280 1.6 131 179 97 91 GTW 3571 63.19 73.00 19.9 132 24.3 55.3 16.8 5.0 18.8 13.0 8.0 -5.2 1 12 94 252 1.7 123 152 87 83 CSCO 3576 98.94 62.94 1.7 128 90.5 118.5 22.4 7.2 15.1 1.7 -6.1 -4.1 2 11 96 213 12.7 117 148 93 90 WMT 5331 68.00 44.94 2.6 128 41.5 38.4 9.6 -11.8 5.0 1.3 -6.3 -1.2 1 7 99 211 3.0 115 144 93 87 EQ 6311 80.06 65.00 1.5 127 -15.4 46.9 8.1 -6.1 -4.1 -4.9 -6.1 -2.3 2 9 96 221 7.3 111 142 95 87 AAPL 3571 35.62 53.31 12.6 126 52.6 43.6 37.6 36.0 27.1 22.0 -4.2 -1.7 0 7 95 275 0.2 121 154 95 74 QLGC 3674 55.31 151.12 2.1 126 410.2 260.8 116.7 132.5 40.7 15.3 11.1 0.6 7 10 100 222 17.2 136 150 96 79 AEG 6311 110.19 75.69 0.1 125 -26.3 -11.9 -31.8 -13.5 -12.7 -6.6 3.1 2.3 1 15 100 322 7.3 133 187 98 87 Cumulative Returns filter ____VALK Stocks All Eval on 19980722 Bought at next day close Sell on 19990723 long # 10 81.3 76.6 23.3 16.6 14.3 6.3 -0.7 short# 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 net # 10 81.3 76.6 23.4 16.6 14.3 6.3 -0.7 SPY 18.9 27.3 10.8 -0.0 3.5 2.1 -3.4