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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vector1 who wrote (6882)	7/17/1999 11:06:00 PM
From: Pseudo Biologist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

V1, thanks for the investment perspective. My questions had a strong trading flavor to be sure. I see how the vicious cycle of floorless convertibles and the like can reverse, and lead to what you describe. And I missed MLNM in the list of recommended stocks by S&P Outlook. It was also mentioned in today's Barron's by some "star" (diversified) fund manager. You are correct that many non-sector funds are starting to pile up on a number of biotech names, including the aforementioned as well as several in your list such as MEDI, IDPH, etc. And, yes, they are hungry for more and will move shortly after they pass some magic market cap (look at IMCL, in spite of its weak - your term - or playboy - my buddy's term - management). As for HGS, you may find the following amusing: biz.yahoo.com <<''The discovery of BLyS and its potential medical application is a milestone for immunology and medicine,'' said William Haseltine, Ph.D., Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Human Genome Sciences. >> But about a month earlier: ncbi.nlm.nih.gov J Exp Med 1999 Jun 7 ;189(11):1747-56 BAFF, a novel ligand of the tumor necrosis factor family, stimulates B cell growth. Schneider P, et al. Institute of Biochemistry, University of Lausanne, Switzerland. ... Here we describe a novel member of the TNF family, designated BAFF (for B cell activating factor belonging to the TNF family), which is expressed by T cells and dendritic cells. Human BAFF was mapped to chromosome 13q32-34. ... The expression of BAFF receptor appeared to be restricted to B cells. Both membrane-bound and soluble BAFF induced proliferation of anti-immunoglobulin M-stimulated peripheral blood B lymphocytes. Moreover, increased amounts of immunoglobulins were found in supernatants of germinal center-like B cells costimulated with BAFF. These results suggest that BAFF plays an important role as costimulator of B cell proliferation and function. ** Further research shows that BAFF and BLyS are one and the same: ncbi.nlm.nih.gov And so is TALL-1: J Leukoc Biol 1999 May**;65(5):680-3 TALL-1 is a novel member of the TNF family that is down-regulated by mitogens. Shu HB, Hu WH, Johnson H National Jewish Medical and Research Center, University of Colorado Health Sciences Center ncbi.nlm.nih.gov The last authors did not seem to be aware of the B-cell stimulation properties of this molecule. How come the press releases and other PR (and yes, there was PR) from HGS did not mention this? In most likelihood HGS was the first discoverer, and will probably end up with the lion share of patent rights; I am just pointing to the ethics or lack thereof of their executives in how they chose to present this to the public. I could almost bet (hope?) the HGS scientists were not happy with the handling of this. Or, maybe I am just too darn naive -g- PB

To: Vector1 who wrote (6882)	7/18/1999 10:58:00 AM
From: Mike McFarland	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

I would stay away from the combinatorial companies as they add much less value to pharma Would you put Aurora in that category...after all, it is in the model portfolio... Quite a romp the past couple trading sessions--432k shares on Friday, wow. It is such a hot market you cannot know if this is because of the earnings estimates...a munch factor, or just daytraders piling on. I said: the folks who bid up stocks on hype are not piling into the model portfolio--I changed my mind...and if daytraders want to come in to the sector and help bid things up to more reasonable valuations, I will not complain.

To: Vector1 who wrote (6882)	7/18/1999 2:59:00 PM
From: sim1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

>>Examples of companies that will explode once they crack $500m in valuation include CLTR, GLIA and ABSC. It would be worth exploring what other biotechs fit into this category.<< How about GLFD? CELG? What do you think the characteristics are we should be looking for.

To: Vector1 who wrote (6882)	7/20/1999 8:48:00 AM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 9719

< CLTR, GLIA and ABSC. > Check out what's happening to ENZN on the charts...... backs up what you're saying IMO. I'm staying on board till this thing plays out. They should be a shoe-in for PEG-INTRON A [INTRON A, an approved drug] which looks to generate north of $1 share earnings based on INTRON A's [SGP] current market for the drug... so at todays price you get nice appreciation AND the rest of their pipeline for free. DAK

To: Vector1 who wrote (6882)	7/20/1999 1:34:00 PM
From: biowa	Respond to of 9719

V1, <<The genomics companies... AFFX has had a huge run and may be overdone but I wouldn't get in front of that freight train. Those who are not sophisticated think they are the INTEL of biotech. They may be but there are a number of other technologies that will present quite a challenge not to mention a patent minefield.>> To back you up there. From a conversation recently with a technology licensing person at [major US pharma]: "We thought that after the success of our deal with [genomics company], we'd go out a do an exclusive deal with the best SNP company to gain further advantage. But as we're looking, there are so many competitors with so much overlapping IP that I don't think there's such a deal." biowa