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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (35526)	7/18/1999 5:53:00 PM
From: JMD	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

Jeez Chaz, I'm a sucker for compliments, but being among the 'best thinkers' may be pushing the outer limits of the surfboard :-) The dollar cost averaging you've used is a time tested technique, and a very valid one it seems to me, for trying to spread risk or at least to confine it to 'acceptable' limits. I use it alot. That said, my preference is to attempt to get a handle on management, since outstanding management, is IMO, the ultimate risk mitigator when dealing with the 'gorilla, gorilla, who's got a gorilla' game. Chambers at Cisco is a classic example. "Everybody" knows that the failure rate when merging high tech company A with high tech company B is about 75%. Everybody, that is, but John Chambers who just seems to be totally ignorant of this established factoid. I have no idea how he consistently succeeds where others fail, but the facts speak for themselves (and all the deliriously happy CSCO shareholders). Loral/Globalstar? Anybody else but Bernard Schwartz at the helm and I would have bailed on these two a long time ago. As it is, my dough is riding with Bernie. Ditto Mike Birck at TLAB. Spreading participation in a sector where no clear winner has emerged is more problematical, but it's what I'm doing for the Last Mile to the Home play since I'll be damned if I can figure out if the cable modem, xDSL, or satellite boys are in the driver's seat. I spend about 70% of my DD efforts on quality of management, with the remainder on 'the numbers'. Although it can be tougher info to get because the analysts are Excel boys by training, and seemingly get paid to pump out spreadsheets by the pound, it can actually be more efficient in some cases. Example: I was starting to poke around with USIX. Learned that this new IPO has a private air force for its hot shot executive crew, and generally slings money around in ways that turn me off. End of effort, not interested, see you later. Such 'subjective' info is more valuable to me than 'hard' data, nine times out of ten. Geoff Tate at RMBS doesn't have a secretary and neither do any of the other execs. Rambus was a very high risk play but that gave me the confidence necessary to go ahead. Finally, I confine my buy days to sessions when the NAZ is getting hosed. Chasing this stuff hasn't worked for me [although I must admit refusing to chase left me watching the Uniphase rocket ship leave the launch pad w/o me]. I have zeroed in on two books for upcoming vacation--Gorilla Game is one of them. Seems like lots of folks consider it must reading, you among others. Anxious to see what all the shouting's about. Kind regards, Mike Doyle