To: David Eddy who wrote (6679 ) 7/17/1999 11:47:00 PM From: Ken Respond to of 9818
<Yeltsin continues to view the United States as Russia's "main enemy-Lunev: Analysis: Russian Involvement in the Kosovo Crisis Colonel Stanislav Lunev June 24, 1999 Hours before U.S., British and other NATO forces entered Kosovo, several hundred Russian Army soldiers assigned to "peacekeeping" operations in Bosnia rolled through Serbia to take control of the airport in the Kosovar provincial capital of Pristina. To reinforce the ground troops Moscow was prepared to fly large transport aircraft with additional personnel and firepower into the Pristina airport. Implementation of this plan was prevented only when the Russian Federation, or RF, couldn't get permission from Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria to overfly their territories. Moscow had no choice but to reinforce its military personnel in Pristina only by transporting ground troops from their Bosnia location. Russian officials, primarily foreign minister Igor Ivanov, called this development an "unfortunate mistake," insisted that the government didn't know about the troop deployment, and promised that the troops would be recalled "immediately." Western leaders, who have spent hundreds of billions of their taxpayers' dollars to support the completely bankrupt RF government, and who still believe that the RF government is their "friend, partner and possible ally," almost bought this explanation. But the action wasn't a "mistake." It was a very carefully planned strategic military-political operation and a calculated move that was fulfilled very rapidly, decisively and effectively. The order for that move was made by the "best Russian friend of America," President Boris Yeltsin, who on the second day of the operation promoted the Russian general in charge to the next military rank of three-star General-Colonel. In doing so, Yeltsin very clearly underscored the importance of the step made by the Russian military and essentially accepted responsibility for this dangerous move, which could compromise principles of current and future international peacekeeping missions. A good deal of speculation appeared in the press about the Russian involvement in Kosovo, from the explanation that the move was done without permission from the president to the possibility that the Russian leaders are losing control over the former Soviet nuclear arsenal. But it's very difficult to believe that Boris Yeltsin is not in control. He retains strong control over the military and security services of his country, directing their activity against his own people in addition to America and its friends and allies. Yeltsin continues to view the United States as Russia's "main enemy." The main reason for Russia's action is absolutely the same as it was in the modern history of relations between America and the "new democratic Russia"--the money. The RF government, which has existed since 1992 primarily on money from Western democracies and international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, now desperately needs money. Reforms have not worked and lenders no longer want to provide money. But after the Kosovo incident, the Russian government had a chance to trade its military presence in Pristina for new credit, loans and cash for its corrupt elite. There isn't any doubt that new money for Russia will come very soon. In the next few weeks Boris Yeltsin may be promised new Western obligations for cash, old debt restructure and relief, and direct investments in the collapsing Russian economy at expense to American and other Western countries' taxpayers. Boris Yeltsin already has and will have other benefits from his "unexpected" military activity. First of all, he reminded the international community that he is not always sick, tired and drunk. From time to time he is still boss and Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Army, which is operational and has tens of thousands of nuclear warheads. Moreover, he demonstrated to Western leaders that he still has all the state power in his hands and that it is senseless for American and other leaders to attempt to communicate over his head with possible Yeltsin successors such as Primakov and Stepashin. Domestically Yeltsin silenced opposition from the red-brown communists and nationalists who dominate Parliament and who believe that Western policy toward NATO's future is a direct attempt to isolate Russia and "squeeze" her out of Europe. These nationalists aligned themselves with Serbs in the Yugoslavia crisis and support Milosevic's government because they believe that the next NATO attack could be against Russia itself and its only official ally, Byelorussia. With his military move in Kosovo, Yeltsin showed his intention to secure the Serbian population and his concern over NATO's future role in international affairs. The action in Kosovo also reminded the world that the previously well-known and scared Red Army still exists and can fulfill rapidly and decisively any reasonable or unreasonable order from its Supreme Commander-in-Chief. Russian paratroopers negated previous Western press reports that the Russian military is "demoralized and corrupt" and is not controlled by the government. The paratroopers who participated in that tactical and strategic surprise military move didn't even consider the possibility that they would be betrayed by their Commander-in-Chief, that their presence in Kosovo would be traded by their own leaders for new financial benefits from Western countries. Of course, they will receive some military awards to put on their uniforms, but the new credit and loans will never be available to ordinary Russians. The money will disappear into the private accounts of the corrupt new Russian elite. This Russian military-political move could seriously undermine the peacekeeping mission in Yugoslavia, split Kosovo into unpredictable and extremely hostile ethical enclaves, bring new tension to the Balkans, and destroy political stability in Europe, if the money does not come to the RF government as soon as possible.