Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (3967)	7/18/1999 4:58:00 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

My thoughts on y2k are confused. DANGER! DANGER! Bus schedules will be wrong! Dog licenses will expire! This is the type of hype you will see on TV between now and 2YK, and it will be about as accurate as the present business info we get. Not to worry, Frank and Mike. With earnings on softy and Q due next week, time to put "Merlin" to work. Mike, we will want a quick "DD" out of you on these two after earnings. I don't expect any surprises from softy, but God knows what we will get from Q. I think it will take some analysis to really figure out how fast earnings are going to rise on Q. I agree with Frank, I am having a hard time getting through the weekend. Just got in from dancing at the Coconut Club, and find that my mind is still on the market instead of my partners!

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (3967)	7/18/1999 9:35:00 AM
From: Brian K Crawford	Respond to of 54805

I'm thinking we may pare down our holdings to core positions, and hold about 25% in cash during the danger period. Uncle Frank, I have been thinking more about this since we first discussed it on Voltaires Porch. My first response was "hold your normal leverage and core positions. If we get a Y2K dip, load up beyond your normal leverage, then sell off back to normal when the relief rally occurs after the first. I work for a financial institution and see the preparation going on in our industry for Y2K. There is no way we won't be ready and fully functioning. This preparedness and my natural optimism has kept me believing that Y2K will blow through with much hype, but little real danger. On further evaluation of your points, I can definitely imagine a sort of "buyers strike" taking place in the fourth quarter, and can also imagine an especially punishing tax loss selling season in December as investors pare their losers early to simultaneously reduce taxes on their '99 gains, and the Y2K risk. I also would expect investors to place greater emphasis between now and year end on quality stocks and away from the speculative stuff. I know that is what I have been doing with my positions. Plays right into the G+K portfolio approach, doesn't it? There must be worthwhile options/leaps strategies that apply, but someone with more expertise than me will have to weigh in on that. BTW, this has become my favorite (and most profitable) SI thread. Great contributions. Thanks, Brian

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (3967)	7/18/1999 12:15:00 PM
From: snoozlooze	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

... may sell a series of 3 covered calls on the core holdings... Unc, Am a long time lurker, have read THE BOOK, core holdings fit the profile... A question concerning the covered calls if I may. I have considered this strategy on "lesser" holdings but have always been told that the only(?) downside to CC's is the loss of "potential earnings" as the underlying increases in value. If we were to employ CC's as a Y2K insurance on our Gorilla holdings, what is the safest strategy? I would hate to lose the underlying securities. Thanks in advance Snooz P.S. One of my employees, a very intelligent female who uses a computer daily, is considering buying a new computer at home. She told me that she was waiting to buy until after Jan 1, because of the Y2K! I think there is definitely going to be an over-reaction by the general public!

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (3967)	7/18/1999 10:33:00 PM
From: Daiju Kohno	Respond to of 54805

Y2K already has had an effect on corporate spending, and will most likely have some effect on all of us who try to trade around that time. (Thankfully, the first trading day of 2000 is the 3rd, I think) 4/9/99 was another potential glitch date, and glitches did indeed occur at several brokerages. One major east coast brokerage lost all of its clients' records. However, they luckily had back up info and were up and running quickly enough that most clients did not notice. Also, financial institutons are doing great in terms of Y2K readiness, but many utility companies have not tested their systems. Therefore, even if various institutions are fine, lack electricity and phone communication could cause serious havoc. (My wife is currently working on a Y2K Readiness project; that's why I know a bit about this stuff) My original plan was to take everything off the table this fall and wait for a good buyback opportunity in late 99 or early 00. The current rally has me doubting my plan, but even at its most diluted level, my Y2K plan will be to get off margin completely so I'll at least have some buying power if the markets tank.