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Biotech / Medical : VaxGen Inc.-The 1st AIDS Vaccine in Phase 3 HumanTrials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Manfred Sondermann who wrote (104)	7/18/1999 1:02:00 PM
From: Dave Budde	Respond to of 250

Seems to me this investment is a binary decision. You either believe they will get FDA approval or you don't. If they do, then it's a home run investment. If they don't then you may lose some or all of your investment. If they do get FDA approval, then the price you pay for the stock today will be immaterial. So the only question to be answered is how much are you willing to bet.

To: Manfred Sondermann who wrote (104)	7/20/1999 7:09:00 AM
From: Manfred Sondermann	Respond to of 250

In the prospectus I found a marketing statement for AIDSVAX: >[...] a UNAIDS study, which predicts that, within a decade, >the worldwide need for HIV vaccine will exceed 650 million doses >annually. With these numbers, let us do the same calculation as in #104 again: with an AIDSVAX dose price of perhaps $25 (like the Hepatitis B vaccine), and the same assumptions as in #104, the result is: VXGN might have net earnings of $2.23 billion each year, and the stock might trade at $5200, with a P/E of 35.