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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MHS who wrote (13190)	7/18/1999 12:29:00 PM
From: Larry Brubaker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27311

Once again, its easy to make accusations without substantiation. I could just as easily say your posting record is about as accuarate as FMK's. And don't bother to ask me to back it up, its not worth my time.

To: MHS who wrote (13190)	7/18/1999 12:36:00 PM
From: John Curtis	Respond to of 27311

Well, so we have competing theories as to what that private institutional purchase was designed for. Larry, et.al., have their theory, what they call the "quick flip". And Rich, et.al., have theirs, which amount to the viewpoint of a long term institutional investor whose seen the merit of VLNC's capabilities, and feels secure in dropping $3 Million large down on them. Either viewpoint can be valid as neither viewpoint can be outright discredited by any normal mechanisms. Like PROOF. So we're forced to rely on instinct and a read of the transactional tea leaves. I tend to agree with the long term rationale for a couple of reasons. First, I key off the word "institution", read here an organization that's investing other people's monies. Typically they're not looking for a quick flip as it's too much of a gamble with those aforementioned other folks money, although I'll have to admit it depends on the mission statement of the institution in question. Secondly, Larry likes to point to these small block(in the single digit K range) sells as proof of his hypothesis. My counter is this same pattern occurred, more or less, the last six times VLNC was on the downside of it's 7 month pattern. So what does THAT mean? One thing it means(imho), is it weakens the quick flip hypothesis since the $3 Million large was just recently provided. So I'm left with the long term hypothesis as a good, rational guess. But I'll admit, it's a gut driven guess. But speaking of patterns, does anyone wish to guess on the why of another pattern which has repeated every, single, time VLNC has been at the low end of its range? Pattern? Yup, there's a consistent pattern of the bid size largely exceeding the ask size when it gets down in the ~$6 1/2 area. This typically has proceeded the next 1 to 1 1/2 point rise. This bid size excess was apparent again this week. Since the bid is what buyers are willing to pay, and the ask is what sellers want.....in broad terms that is, does this mean more buyers are stepping up to the plate when it's down around $6 1/2? Does this mean someone, through this buying willingness, is supporting the stock when it gets down there. In other words, a good, strong support level, or base, is apparent at ~$6 1/2 to $6 3/4? If so, why? Anyone want to guess as to what it means? John~