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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pseudo Biologist who wrote (6889)	7/18/1999 2:22:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Respond to of 9719

Re: more ideas or <juice still left in GZSP> I have the skills and training (actuary) to recognize value when I see it. That was what I saw in GZSP. Although I have some chemistry background, and a daughter who is a recent PhD in molecular biology, I really don't know much about biotech and have no further ideas in THAT field. On GZSP, my assessment was that the assets were worth $16 per share -- $9 net cash, $6 surgical business, $1 Seprafilm, $0 biotherapeutics. I would defer to any of you biotech guys on the business values, but that seemed reasonable to me. Note GENZ paid $15 per share for the surgical business and Collier said on the roadshow that it is a more valuable business now than when they bought it -- which is not the same as saying it is worth more than the $250 M they paid ($15 per share). Even though the businesses look mediocre to me, and they are losing sizeable amounts of money, $3+ was just too cheap. As I have posted, I thought $5+ did not change the picture. In my opinion, somewhere between here and perhaps $12 it will no longer be an easy decision on value and the stock will run out of steam. My current attitude is that it is OK to buy a pullback and OK to sell piecemeal into further rallies. By the way, I was surprised at the rapid turnaround and bought much less than I was considering. I knew the institutions had to sell this just like GZMO. GENZ had distributed more than double the shares they did on GZMO so I thought the trading pattern would be depressed much longer than GZMO. However, GZSP started moving far sooner than the initial trading pattern on GZMO would have predicted.