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To: psh who wrote (12603)7/18/1999 2:36:00 PM
From: Killian  Respond to of 29970
 
to the Thread! NEWS???

broadcastingcable.com

Could be why we've been letting our blood out this past week!

Kevin



To: psh who wrote (12603)7/18/1999 2:57:00 PM
From: red_dog  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29970
 
Wouldn't we have the same problem, that seems to be confronting T now. Everyone says that T will dominate Cable, what would they say with AOL with 17 or so million.

Rg.



To: psh who wrote (12603)7/18/1999 3:28:00 PM
From: HECTOR RUBERT  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 29970
 
PSH.....Here are my comments relating to AT&T, ATHM, and AOL!!!

The CPQ deal with CMGI could have set a presedent to what AT&T and AOL might be working on. In this deal, CPQ gave CMGI its ALTAVISTA portal and other internet assets for a stake in CMGI. This works for CPQ in the sense that they now have someone with expertise running their internet assets and they have an equity stake in the future prosperity of CMGI's execution.

Bottom line? Very little if any dilution of shareholder value. Basicly a swap for synergy values that benefits both parties.

I believe AT&T might be working a very similar deal with AOL regarding ATHM. AT&T has always wanted to acquire AOL. However, Mr. Case would never give up control of its media empire to a phone company. Now AT&T has leverage with its cable operations and ATHM. Excite has had years of excellent working relations with AOL via NETCENTER and AOL.COM. AT&T is a communications company. ATHM is a broadband internet communications/media company. AOL is the largest Internet and Media Company in the world.

AT&T's fervor in the cable acquisitions was strictly to build enough clout for AOL to strike a deal with them. Armstrong has been dying to get his hands on the 18million and growing AOL population. AOL wants to expand its media holdings via a solid broadband network. It is quite likely that some sort of deal is worked out so that AT&T will hand over ATHM for and equity stake in AOL. AT&T wants to own AOL not ATHM....this is a well known fact for years. I believe AT&T has finally built a good enough war chest for AOL to consider AT&T as a major partner.

This would mean that AOL would have absorbed 3 of my previous holdings 1st Netscape, 2nd Excite, 3rd ATHM. The thought of AOL increasing its membership via the explosive cable access just blows my mind. AOL will maintain its other distribution channels via Satellite and DSL...remember their objective is AOL ANYWHERE!!!! So, it will include CABLE no matter what others say.

Best,

Hector



To: psh who wrote (12603)7/18/1999 3:53:00 PM
From: Jing Qian  Respond to of 29970
 
Richard,

I don't believe T will accommodate AOL by sacrificing the interests of ATHM. By so doing, T may run the risk of alienating the other MSOs. The most likely scenario of a T/AOL alliance, if any, would not bypass ATHM. Alienating MSOs probably is less critical than T's losing leverage in controlling the content offering. As I said repeatedly earlier, although T is not in the content business, T is well aware of the trend that content is the key to future revenues and T will not give it up to AOL. AOL is poised to dominate the end to end user experience, thus totally in control of content. The stumbling block to an T/AOL alliance is exactly this behavior of AOL. T doesn't want AOL to be the big brother. The reason T is more happy to work with ATHM is that ATHM is in fact T's subsidiary.

So the bottomline is, T will not let themselves degenerate into another BellAtlantic, providing only the transport medium to AOL's front page. We have to know that most of the revenues in 21st century will be from content based offering such as Video On Demand and Interactive marketing and E-Commerce. By working with ATHM, T will have the chance to participate in this content based revenue, by working with AOL, T will lose such leverage, thus become a dump pipe company.

Therefore, it's possible T and AOL are making deals behind the scene, but none would be like that between Bell Atlantic and AOL.

Just imagine you are Mike Armstrong, you know you have the definite chance to surpass AOL and control the Internet from end-to-end, why on earth do you want to give this chance to AOL? Unless you know you can't win the war alone, like the situation Bell Atlantic and SBC are in.

Jing