To: psh who wrote (12603 ) 7/18/1999 3:53:00 PM From: Jing Qian Respond to of 29970
Richard, I don't believe T will accommodate AOL by sacrificing the interests of ATHM. By so doing, T may run the risk of alienating the other MSOs. The most likely scenario of a T/AOL alliance, if any, would not bypass ATHM. Alienating MSOs probably is less critical than T's losing leverage in controlling the content offering. As I said repeatedly earlier, although T is not in the content business, T is well aware of the trend that content is the key to future revenues and T will not give it up to AOL. AOL is poised to dominate the end to end user experience, thus totally in control of content. The stumbling block to an T/AOL alliance is exactly this behavior of AOL. T doesn't want AOL to be the big brother. The reason T is more happy to work with ATHM is that ATHM is in fact T's subsidiary. So the bottomline is, T will not let themselves degenerate into another BellAtlantic, providing only the transport medium to AOL's front page. We have to know that most of the revenues in 21st century will be from content based offering such as Video On Demand and Interactive marketing and E-Commerce. By working with ATHM, T will have the chance to participate in this content based revenue, by working with AOL, T will lose such leverage, thus become a dump pipe company. Therefore, it's possible T and AOL are making deals behind the scene, but none would be like that between Bell Atlantic and AOL. Just imagine you are Mike Armstrong, you know you have the definite chance to surpass AOL and control the Internet from end-to-end, why on earth do you want to give this chance to AOL? Unless you know you can't win the war alone, like the situation Bell Atlantic and SBC are in. Jing